Tight market persists as DC Metro pending sales hit highest September level this decade

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $405,000 at highest September level in ten years; pending sales at September high; inventories decline for 17^th consecutive month although new listings increase to highest September levels of the decade.

Rockville, MD – (October 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on September 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro median sales price of $405,000 was up 1.3% or $5,100 compared to last year but was down 5.8% or $25,000 compared to last month.  This is the highest September price of the decade.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $2 billion, down 2.2% from last year.
• Closed sales of 4,040 were down 3.4% compared to last year and down 20.4% compared to last month.
• New contract activity of 4,809 was up 2.5% compared to last year.
• New listings of 6,972 were up 2.8% compared to last year and were up 18.3% from last month.
• Active listings of 10,903 are down 1.8% compared to last year but up 10.6% compared to last month. This is the 17th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in September was 97.6%.
• The median days-on-market for September 2017 was 20 days, four days lower than last year.

• September’s regional median sales price of $405,000 was an increase of $5,100 (+1.3%) compared to last year, but was down $25,000 (-5.8%) compared to last month.  This is the 12^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and was the highest September level of the last 10 years.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached home prices increased 5.3% to $499,000 and townhome prices were nearly flat at $400,000.  Condo prices decreased 5.2% to $283,750. 
• September prices are above the 5-year average of $396,380 and the 10-year average of $366,990.
• The overall regional price of $405,000 is 22.7% above the $330,000 seen most recently in September 2010.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $630,000, up 5.9% from last year. 
• Prince George’s County is still the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $280,000, a 7.7% increase over last year. 
• For the year to date, the regional median sales price is up 3.4% to $429,000.

• Closed sales of 4,040 were down 3.4% from last year and down 20.4% from last month.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached sales were down 1.7% to 1,856.  Condo sales were down 3.4% to 1,122 and townhome sales were down 6.1% to 1,062.
• Sales remain above both the 5-year average of 3,912 and the 10-year average of 3,688.
• September’s closed sales were 29.9% above the market low of 3,110 seen in September 2011.
• Sales activity across the region was mixed, with the largest gain in Fairfax City (+18.8% or 6 sales) and the largest decline in Washington D.C. ( -13.7% or 97 sales). 
• Across the region, year-to-date sales are up 4.0% to 42,698, and all jurisdictions show gains in sales, with the largest percentage gain in Fairfax City (+33.7% or 86 sales) and the smallest in Montgomery County (+0.1% or 6 sales).   

• New pending sales of 4,809 were up 2.5% compared to last year, but were down 3.1% compared to last month.  This marked the highest level of September pending sales of the decade.
• Condo pending sales increased 4.2% to 1,325, townhome pending sales increased 3.4% to 1,295, and pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 1.0% to 2,188.
• Pending sales remain above the 5-year average of 4,559 and the 10-year average of 4,166.
• September’s new pending sales were 50.6% more than the September 2008 low of 3,194 and were 0.6% below the previous September high of 4,781 seen in 2015.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mixed, with the largest percentage increase in Fairfax City, which was up from 17 new pending sales to 31 (+82.4%).  The largest percentage decrease was in Falls Church City, where they dropped from 12 to 10 (-16.7%).

• September’s 6,972 new listings were up 2.8% from last year and up 18.3% from last month.  This is the highest level of new September listings in a decade.     
• Compared to last year, new condo listings were up 6.8% to 2,009 and new townhome listings were up 6.0% to 1,729.  New single-family listings were down 1.0% to 3,232.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 6,653 and the 10-year average of 6,325. 
• September new listings are 36.1% above the 10-year low of 5,124 seen in September 2012, and are 1.3% above the previous September 2015 high of 6,882.
• Across the region, Falls Church City saw the largest percentage decrease in new listings (-28.6% to 15).  The largest percentage increase was in Fairfax City (+37.2% to 59 listings).
• For the year to date, new listings across the entire DC Metro of 61,490 are up 2.2% compared to last year.

• There were 10,903 active listings at the end of September, down 1.8% compared to last year but up 10.6% compared to last month.  Inventory levels have declined for 17 consecutive months.
• While townhome inventories rose 1.1% to 2,112, condo inventories were down 2.3% to 2,833 and single-family detached inventories were down 2.6% to 5,949.
• Inventories are below both the 5-year average of 11,293, and the 10-year average of 13,709.
• September inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 9,340 by 16.7%, but are down 54.6% from the peak of 24,021 seen in September 2008.
• Across the region, inventory levels showed the largest gain in Washington D.C., increasing 9.8% to 1,553.  The largest percentage decline was in Falls Church City (-22.2% to 28).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for September was 97.6%, up from last year’s 97.5%, but down from last month’s 97.8%. 
• Townhomes have the highest September SP to OLP ratio of 98.6%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.4% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.1%.
• September’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.5% and the 10-year average of 95.8%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest September average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2008, when it was 92.8%, and the decade’s high was September 2013, when it was 98.0%.
• Arlington County had the highest regional SP to OLP ratio of 98.1%, up from last year’s 97.0%.
• This month, the largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Falls Church City, where the average ratio was 96.0%, up from last year’s 95.7%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 98.2%, higher than last year’s 97.6%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in September was 20 days, down from 24 days last year but up two days from last month.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 14, while condos have a median DOM of 20, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 24.
• September’s median DOM was three days below the 5-year average of 23 days and 12 days below the 10-year average of 32 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 20 is the second-lowest September level in a decade (the lowest was 17 days in 2013).  The highest September median DOM of the last 10 years was 68 days in 2008.
• The highest median DOM in the region in September was in Montgomery County where it was 24 days, down from 28 days last year. 
• Fairfax City has the lowest median DOM of 7 days, down from 19 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 15 days, down from 20 days last year.

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.