Baltimore area hits record home sales and price levels in February

Baltimore Metro area sets new February price record at $275,000; active inventories at all-time lows

Rockville, MD – (March 11, 2020) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on February 2020 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area February median sales price of $275,000 was, by far, the highest February price of the last decade, increasing 10.2% over last year.
• Sales volume of over $743 million was up 29.9% from last year.
• Both closed and new pending sales were at February highs.  With 2,381 closed sales (up 16.2% over last year), this marks the sixth consecutive month in a row of double-digit gains in closed sales.  New pending sales were up for the eighth month in a row, jumping 14.3% to 3,791.
• New listings rose 4.2% to 4,131, the first real gain in new listings since mid-2019.
• However, the gain in new listings was not enough to offset the higher sales, and inventories continue to decline (down 16.9% from 02/2019) to their lowest level of the decade at just 6,725.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale was 96.4%, up significantly from last year’s 94.9% and was at the highest February level in at least ten years.
• Median days-on-market of 38 are down significantly from last February’s 49 days to the lowest February level of the decade, although they did rise one day from last month.

• The regional median sales price of $275,000 was, by far, the highest February price of the decade, up 10.2% or $25,550 from last year and up 6.6% or $17,050 from last month.
• Single-family homes had the largest percentage gain in prices over last year, up 11.3% to $345,000.  Townhome prices rose 8.9% to $201,350 and condos were up 2.9% to $215,000
• Prices remain well above the 5-year average of $244,890 and the 10-year average of $230,280.
• Prices are 33.9% above the February 2011 low of $205,350.  Last February’s $249,450 had been the highest February price of the decade until this month.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a February median sales price of $424,000, up 20.5% from last year, the largest percentage gain in median sales price in the region.  Baltimore City continues to be the most affordable area, with a February median sales price of $142,000, an 18.3% gain over last year.
• In addition to the gains in Howard County and Baltimore City, prices were up across the rest of the region.  Prices rose in Anne Arundel County (+8.0% to $351,000), in Carroll County (+14.8% to $344,500), in Harford County (+8.9% to $250,500) and in Baltimore County (+8.7% to $249,950).
• For the year-to-date, prices across the region are up 6.9% to $265,000.

• The 2,381 closed sales in February were up a significant 16.2% compared to last year.  This is the sixth month in a row of double-digit increases and the highest level of February sales this decade.  Sales were down 5.0% from last month.
• Closed sales of single-family detached homes were up 27.2% to 1,275, while condo sales were up 11.1% to 231 and townhome sales increased by just 4.3% to 875.
• Sales are just above the 5-year average of 2,228 but are well above the 10-year average of 1,880.
• Sales were 75.6% above the February 2011 trough of 1,356.  The highest February sales level prior to this month had been 2018’s 2,252.
• Closed sales were up significantly across the region, with the largest percentage gain in Carroll County (+58.4% to 141), followed by Harford County (+23.9% to 249), Anne Arundel County (+16.4% to 554), Baltimore County (+13.9% to 671), Howard County (+11.0% to 223) and Baltimore City (+10.1% to 543)
• For the year-to-date, closed sales are up 17.5% to 4,985. 

• The 3,791 new pending sales at the end of February were up 14.3% compared to last year and up 15.1% from last month, easily the highest level of February pending sales of the decade.
• Pending sales of condos were up 25.0% to 380, single-family detached homes were up 19.8% to 2,010, and pending sales of townhomes were up 4.9% to 1,401.
• Pending contracts are above both the 5-year average of 3,517 and the 10-year average of 3,018.
• The number of new pending contracts this February was 76.3% more than the 10-year market low of 2,150 seen in February 2011.  The prior February high was in 2017, when it was 3,538.
• Across the region, new pending sales compared to last year were up everywhere, with the largest percentage gain in Carroll County, where they rose 21.8% to 246, and the smallest percentage gain in Baltimore City, where they rose 4.8% to 898.   

• New listings finally saw a solid gain of 4.2% over last year to 4,131, the first time since last September that new listings were up a meaningful amount.  They were up 11.8% over last month.
• New listings of condos jumped by the largest percentage over last year, rising 20.9% to 410.  New listings of single-family homes rose 5.7% to 2,126, while new listings of townhomes declined 1.1% to 1,595.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 4,024 and the 10-year average of 3,645.
• The number of new February listings exceeded the 2013 market low of 3,136 by 31.7%.
• New listing activity across the region was mostly up, with Baltimore County (+13.1% to 1,072), Howard County (+9.6% to 423), Anne Arundel (+9.4% to 979), and Harford County (+1.9% to 375) seeing gains in new listings while Carroll County (-2.8% to 206) and Baltimore City (-6.8% to 1,076) saw declines.  For the year-to-date, new listings are up a slight 1.9% to 7,827.

• Active inventories were down 16.9% to 6,725, the lowest monthly level of the past decade and the largest year-over-year decline since February 2017.  They were down 3.4% from last month.
• All property types are again at their lowest inventory levels of the decade.  Compared to last year, inventories of single-family homes were down 17.5% to 3,649, townhome inventories were down 17.0% to 2,460 and active inventories of condos were down 11.1% to 616.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 8,419 and the 10-yr average of 10,044.
• February inventories are 57.2% below the peak level of 15,706 seen in 2011.  Until this month, the lowest February level had been the 7,794 seen in 2018.
• All areas across the region saw double-digit declines in inventory levels compared to last year, with the smallest percentage decline in Baltimore City (-11.5% to 2,391) and the largest percentage decline in Howard County (-24.6% to 479).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for February was 96.4%, up significantly from last year’s 94.9%.  The SP to OLP ratio was also up from last month’s 96.2% and was, by far, the highest February level of the past 10 years.
• Condos have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 97.3%, while townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.5% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.2%.
• This February’s SP to OLP ratio remains well above both the 5-year average of 94.6% and the 10-year average of 92.4%.
• Over the last ten years, the lowest February average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 86.5%.  The high prior to this month was 95.2% in February 2018.
• This month Howard County had the highest SP to OLP ratio in the region at 98.0%, up from 96.4% last year. 
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio was in Baltimore City, where it was 94.0%, up from 91.5% last year, the largest gain in the region.
• All jurisdictions saw gains in SP to OLP ratios compared to last year except Carroll County, where it dropped from 97.3% last year to 96.8% this February.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 96.3%, up from 95.3% last year.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) this month was 38 days, down from 49 days last February, but it did increase from 37 days last month.
• Condos have a median DOM of 24, while townhomes have a median DOM of 34 and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 46.
• February’s median DOM was 12 days below the 5-year average of 50 days and 24 days below the 10-year average of 62 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 38 is the lowest February level in a decade (the next lowest was 44 days in 2018).  The highest February median DOM of the last 10 years was 92 days in 2011.
• Carroll County had the highest February DOM in the area at 49 days (down from 52 days last year).
• Howard County had the lowest median DOM in the area at 27 days, half of the 54 days last February.
• For the year-to-date across the region, the median DOM is 38 days, down from 48 days last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 95,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.