Relatively active January housing market as DC area inventories remain tight

Washington D.C. Metro housing market continues to tighten, with median sales price of $390,000 at highest January level of the decade, sales and pending sales at decade highs and inventory levels decline for ninth consecutive month

Rockville, MD – (February 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on January 2017 MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• January 2017’s median sales price of $390,000 was up $14,500 or 3.9% compared to last year.  This is the highest January median sales price of the last decade, topping the prior high of $385,000 seen in 2015.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $1.5 billion, up 19.5% from last January.
• Closed sales of 3,014 were up 11.5% compared to last year, also the highest January level in a decade, exceeding the 2,702 sales recorded last January.
• New contract activity also reached a ten-year January high, increasing by 15.5% versus the snowy January of 2016 to 3,954 contracts.  
• New listings of 4,541 increased 12.8% compared to last year.
• Active listings of 7,224 are down 12.7% compared to last year and down 3.1% compared to last month. This is the ninth consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels, and inventories are at the lowest January level since 2014.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in January was 97.0%, up from last year’s 96.0%, but the same as last month.
• The median days-on-market for January 2017 was 34 days, ten days lower than last year.

• January’s regional median sales price rose to $390,000, the highest January level in a decade, which was a 3.9% or $14,500 increase over last year, although 4.9% lower than last month.
• All property types saw increases in price, with townhomes up 5.0% to $389,000, condos up 4.9% to $300,000, and single-family detached up 3.3% to $465,000.    
• January prices are above the 5-year average of $372,740 and the 10-year average of $346,450.
• The January overall regional price of $390,000 is 34.5% above the January 2010 low of $290,000, and 1.3% above the prior January high of $385,000 seen in 2015.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $610,000, which is down 18.3% from last year. Prince George’s County is still the most affordable area in the region, with a January median sales price of $260,000, up 7.9% from last January.

• January’s closed sales of 3,014 were up 11.5% or 312 units from last year and down 25.1% from last month. 
• All property types experienced increases in sales this month, with condos up 13.4% to 844, townhome sales up 12.2% to 763, and single-family detached sales up 10.1% to 1,407.
• Sales were well above both the 5-year average of 2,642 and the 10-year average of 2,457.
• January’s closed sales were up 63% compared to the market low of 1,849 seen in January 2008.
• Across the region, all jurisdictions showed increases in January sales, with the largest percentage gain in Falls Church City, which was up 87.5% compared to last year (although the actual increase was only 7 sales), and the smallest increase in Fairfax County, where sales rose 6.9% to 794.

• New pending sales of 3,954 were up 15.5% compared to last year, the highest January level in a decade.  They were also up 11.8% compared to last month.
• All property types saw increases in pending sales, with condos up 21.0% to 1,136, single-family detached up 17.2% to 1,830, and townhomes up 7.0% to 987.
• Pending contracts were above both the 5-year average of 3,703 and the 10-year average of 3,411.
• January 2017’s new pending sales were 63.8% above the January 2008 low of 2,414 and were 1.0% above the prior high of 3,916 seen in January 2013.
• Pending sales activity across the region is universally up, with the largest percentage increase in Falls Church City (+183.3%), which was up from 6 units to 17.  The smallest increase in new pending sales was in Montgomery County, where they were up 11.1% to 848.

• There were 4,541 new listings in January, a 12.8% increase over last year and a 47.0% increase compared to last month. 
• All property types saw increases in new listings, with townhomes up 14.7% to 1,075, single-family detached also up 14.7% to 2,128, and condos up 8.4% to 1,334.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 4,178, but are below the 10-year average of 4,729. 
• January new listings are 13.4% above the 10-year low of 4,004 seen in January 2013, and 36.2% below the January 2008 high of 7,120.
• Across the D.C. Metro, all jurisdictions saw increases in new listings, with the largest in Falls Church City (+60.0% or 6 units) and the smallest in Fairfax County (+9.4% or 105 units).

• January active inventories decreased 12.7% compared to last year to 7,224.  Inventories were also down 3.1% compared to last month. 
• All property types showed decreases in inventory levels over last year, with townhome inventories down 17.2% to 1,241, condo inventories down 13.4% to 2,002, and single-family detached inventories down 10.9% to 3,972.
• Inventories are below the 5-year average of 7,249, and well below the 10-year average of 11,487.
• January inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 6,049 by 19.4%, but are down 67.5% from the peak of 22,201 seen in January 2008.
• In the Falls Church City area, inventory levels remained steady, while in all other jurisdictions they declined, with the largest decreases in Fairfax County and Alexandria City, where they dropped 17.4%.

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for January was 97.0%, the same as last month, but up from last year’s 96.0%.
• Townhomes have the highest January SP to OLP ratio of 97.6%.  Condos have a ratio of 97.0% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.8%.
• January’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 96.3% and the 10-year average of 94.3%
• Over the last decade, the region’s January average sales price to original listing price ratio ranged from a low of 90.0% in 2009, to this January’s high of 97.0%.  The prior highest January level in the last ten years was the 96.6% seen in 2014.
• On average, homes in Prince George’s County sold at 98.3% of their original listing price in January, the highest in the region, and up significantly from last year’s 96.5%
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Falls Church City, where the average ratio was 94.8%, up from last year’s 93.2%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in January was 34 days, down ten days from last year but up five days from last month.
• Single-family detached homes and condos both had median DOM of 35, while townhomes had a median DOM of 29.
• January’s median DOM was three days below the 5-year average of 37 days, and was 16 days below the 10-year average of 50 days.
• The lowest January DOM recorded in the past decade was 32 days in 2013 and 2014, and the highest was 85 days in 2008.
• Regionally, the highest median DOM in January was recorded in Falls Church City at 60 days, down from 92 days last year. 
• The lowest median DOM is still in Washington D.C. where it is 23 days, down from 26 days last year.

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About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia.  Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visitor MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com