Price growth continues as Baltimore area home sales decline for eighth consecutive month in April

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $275,000 at new April record; Sales decline by 2.5%; Inventories remain tight

Rockville, MD – (May 13, 2019) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on April 2019 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price set a new April record, rising 2.7% to $275,000 compared to last year, capping nearly three straight years of price appreciation.
• Sales volume of more than $1 billion was down 2.6% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,266 were down 2.5% compared to last year and year-over-year closed sales have now decreased for eight consecutive months. 
• New pending sales of 4,868 were, up 3.3% from last April.
• New listings rose by 4.9% to 6,262, the second consecutive month of year-over-year increases.
• There were 9,271 active listings at the end of April, up 2.7% from last year.  This is the seventh consecutive month of increases in year-over-year inventories but is still the second lowest level of April inventories of the past decade.
• The April average percentage of original list price received at sale was 96.5%, a slight decline from last year’s 96.6%.

• April’s overall regional median sales price of $275,000 was easily the highest April price of the decade.  Prices were up 2.7% or $7,100 from last year and were also up 4.2% or $11,000 from last month.
• Townhome prices were up 6.9% to $216,500, condo prices were up 3.4% to $215,000, and single-family detached home prices were up 0.8% to $347,750.
• Prices remain well above the 5-year average of $254,280 and the 10-year average of $243,190.
• Prices are 27.9% above the April 2011 low of $215,000.
• Howard County continues to have the highest prices in the region, with an April median sales price of $390,000, which is down 9.3% compared to last year, the largest decline in the area.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area, with an April median sales price of $150,900, up 7.9% from last year and the largest percentage gain in the region.
• Elsewhere, prices went up in Baltimore County (+4.3% to $245,000), in Anne Arundel County (+2.0% to $356,500) and in Harford County (+1.8% to $250,000.  Prices in Carroll County declined by 1.6% to $310,000.
• For the year-to-date, regional prices are up 2.0% to $260,000.

• Closed sales of 3,266 were down 2.5% compared to last year, making this the eighth consecutive month of declining year-over-year closed sales.  Sales were up 15.1% from last month.
• All property types were again down compared to last year, with condo sales down 5.3% to 323, single-family detached sales down 2.9% to 1,696 and townhome sales down 1.1% to 1,247. 
• April sales are above both the 5-year average of 3,175 and the 10-year average of 2,688.
• April sales were 63.3% more than the trough of 2,000 seen in April 2011.
• Sales activity across the region was mostly down, with only Anne Arundel County seeing an increase in closed sales (+1.5% to 818).  The smallest percentage decline was in Baltimore City (-0.1% to 766), followed by Howard County (-0.8% to 378), Carroll County (-1.0% to 207), Harford County (-6.1% to 292) and Baltimore County (-8.0% to 805).
• For the year-to-date, sales are down 2.1% to 10,982.

• There were 4,868 new pending sales at the end of April, up 3.3% compared to last year.  This was the second consecutive month of increases and the highest April level of the decade.  New pending sales were up 10.4% compared to last month.
• Pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 7.0% to 2,640 and townhome pending sales were up 2.9% to 1,797.  However, condo pending sales were down 14.1% to 428.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 4,657 and the 10-year average of 3,965.
• The number of new pending contracts in April was 79.5% more than the 10-year market low of 2,712 seen in April 2011.
• Across the region, Carroll County had the largest percentage increase in new pending sales (+8.0% to 296), followed by Baltimore County (+7.0% to 1,293), Anne Arundel County (+5.6% to 1,157), and Howard County (+3.5% to 535).  New pending sales were down in Baltimore City (-1.0% to 1,126) and in Harford County (-3.6% to 461).

• April’s 6,262 new listings increased 4.9% over last year and 10.6% over last month.    
• New townhome listings increased 12.7% to 2,284 and new single-family detached listings were up 2.4% to 3,452.  New condo listings decreased 8.7% to 522.
• New listings exceed the 5-year average of 6,101 and the 10-year average of 5,558.
• The number of new April listings exceeded the 2012 market low of 4,166 by 50.3% and are just 0.3% below the 2016 peak of 6,283.  
• New listing activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest percentage gain in Baltimore City (+12.9% to 1,553), followed by Baltimore County (+5.3% to 1,586), Howard County (+4.6% to 747) and Carroll County (+2.8% to 370).  New listings just barely declined in Anne Arundel County (-0.1% to 1,433) and in Harford County (-0.9% to 573).
• For the year-to-date, new listings are up 3.0% to 19,591.

• There were 9,271 active listings at the end of April, up 2.7% from last year and up 7.9% from last month. 
• Year-over-year single-family detached inventories were up 4.6% to 5,248, and townhome inventories were up 0.7% to 3,261 but condo inventories were down 2.2% to 755.
• Inventories remain well below both the 5-yr average of 10,614 and the 10-yr average of 12,183.
• April inventories are 45.5% below the peak level of 16,997 seen in 2010.
• Inventory levels rose everywhere except in Carroll County, where they declined by 6.8% to 496. Howard County saw the largest percentage gain in active inventories (+6.0% to 797), followed by Baltimore City (+4.9% to 2,972), Anne Arundel County (+3.1% to 2,198), Harford County (+3.1% to 725) and Baltimore County (+0.2% to 2,083).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for April was 96.5%, down just slightly from last year’s 96.6%, but up from last month’s 95.9%. 
• Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.8%, while single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.7% and townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.2%.
• This April’s SP to OLP ratio remains well above both the 5-year average of 95.6% and the 10-year average of 93.5%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest April average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 87.0%, and the high was last April’s 96.6%.
• Howard County had the highest SP to OLP ratio in the region at 97.9%, down from last year’s 98.1%.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Baltimore City, where it was 93.5%, down from last year’s 93.8%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is at 96.2%, the same as last year. 

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.