Price gains continue in DC area as November home sales pick up versus 2018 levels

Washington D.C. Metro median sales prices at November record of $465,500; closed sales up by a solid 6.1%; inventory declines by almost 20%

Rockville, MD – (December 11, 2019) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November 2019 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The November 2019 Washington D.C. Metro area median home price rose 3.5% or $15,600 compared to last year and set a new November record at $465,500.    
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was just over $2.2 billion, up 13.4% from last year
• Closed sales rose by 6.1% compared to last year to 3,820.
• Pending sales were down a slight 1.9% to 4,136.
• New listings of properties declined by 5.6% compared to last year to 4,079.
• As a result, overall inventory levels declined by 19.5% to just 7,090, the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines in inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale was 98.2%, up from 97.4% last year and easily at the highest November level of the last ten years.
• Median days on market were at the lowest November level of the decade at 16, down from 22 days last year and up just slightly from last month’s 14 days.

• November’s median sales price of $465,500 rose 3.5% or $15,600 over last year and increased 1.2% or $5,500 over last month. 
• Compared to last year, prices for condos rose 5.5% to $324,000, townhome prices gained 4.7% and rose to $450,000 and single-family detached home prices rose 1.5% to $561,883.
• Prices are well above the 5-year average of $430,480 and the 10-year average of $400,785.
• This month’s median sales price is 39.0% higher than the $335,000 trough seen in November 2011.
• Prices in Falls Church City declined by 6.2% to $779,500 but remain the highest in the region. Prince George’s County, with a median sales price of $310,000 (a 7.7% increase over last year), remains the most affordable area.
• The largest percentage gain in the region was in Fairfax City, (+9.1% to $551,000), with Fairfax County (+7.0% to $535,000), Washington D.C. (+3.3% to $620,000) and Montgomery County (+2.7% to $465,000) also seeing gains. In addition to Falls Church City, prices declined in Alexandria City (-2.5% to $539,900) and in Arlington County (-4.9% to $537,500).
• For the year-to-date, prices across the region are up 4.5% to $459,900.

• The 3,820 closed sales in November were up 6.1% over last year (down 13.9% from last month).
• Sales of townhomes rose by 13.2% to 1,069, while single-family detached home sales were up 6.0% to 1,780.  However, condo sales decreased by 0.4% to 971.
• Sales are just above the 5-year average of 3,750 but are well above the 10-year average of 3,448.
• November closed sales are 30.6% above the November 2011 trough of 2,926 but are 6.4% below the peak level of 4,082 seen in November 2017.
• Sales activity was mostly up, with the largest percentage gain in Washington D.C. (+17.6% to 687) and the smallest in Fairfax County (+0.5% to 1,073).  Arlington County (-12.6% to 173), Alexandria City (-25.8% to 147) and Falls Church City (-47.4% to 10) saw declines.
• For the year to date, regional closed sales are up 1.3% to 50,894.

• At the end of November, there were 4,136 new pending sales, down 1.9% from last year and down a seasonal 16.0% from last month.
• Only single-family homes saw an increase in new pending sales this month compared to last year, rising 1.3% to 1,921.  Townhomes were down a slight 0.8% to 1,115, while condos were down 7.5% to 1,100.
• New pendings are below the 5-year average of 4,188 but above the 10-year average of 3,975.
• New pending sales this month were 16.7% more than the November 2010 low of 3,543 and are 2.6% below November 2017’s peak of 4,248.
• New pending sales across the region were mixed, with Fairfax City seeing the largest percentage gain (+44.4% to 39) and Falls Church City seeing the largest decline (-55.6% to 8).

• After tiny gains the last two months, new listings in November declined by 5.6% compared to last year, to just 4,079 new listings and were down a seasonal 34.5% compared to last month.
• While new listings of condos compared to last year rose 8.9% to 1,209, new listings of townhomes were down 2.6% to 1,066 and single-family detached were down 14.6% to 1,801.
• New listings are below the 5-year average of 4,190 but are above the 10-year average of 3,980. 
• November new listings are 19.0% above the November 2012 low of 3,428.
• New listing activity was mostly down, with the smallest percentage decline in Montgomery County (-1.8% to 893) and the largest decline in Falls Church City (-41.7% to 7).  Fairfax City saw the only increase in new listings this month (+3.9% to 27).
• For the year-to-date, regional new listings are down 3.0% to 69,296.

• Active inventories decreased 19.5% to just 7,090, the 10th consecutive month in a row of declines.  Compared to last month, inventories were down 16.5%.
• Single-family detached inventories saw the largest decline compared to last year, plummeting 23.2% to just 3,751 active listings.  Townhome inventories were down 16.3% to 1,470 and condo inventories were down 12.9% to 1,869.
• Inventories are well below the 5-year average of 8,872 and the 10-year average of 9,837.
• November inventory levels are down 53.7% from the peak level of 15,309 seen in November 2010.
• Inventory levels decreased everywhere, with the smallest percentage decline in Washington D.C. (-1.3% to 1,614), followed by Montgomery County (-13.7% to 1,842), Prince George’s County (-24.8% to 1,642), Fairfax County (-27.9% to 1,573), Alexandria City (-32.5% to 164), Fairfax City (-33.3% to 38), Arlington County (-39.5% to 211) and Falls Church City (-77.8% to 6). 

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 98.2%, up from last year’s 97.4% but down from last month’s 98.5%.
• Townhomes have the highest November SP to OLP ratio of 98.6%, followed by condos with a SP to OLP ratio of 98.5%, and single-family detached homes with a SP to OLP ratio of 97.8%.
• November’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.4% and the 10-year average of 96.6%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest SP to OLP ratio was in November 2011, when it was just 93.7%.  Prior to this year, the November high had been in 2013 when it was 97.5%.
• Falls Church City had the highest SP to OLP ratio in the region of 100.2% (compared to 97.0% last year), the highest in the region and the largest gain over last year.
• Montgomery County had the lowest SP to OLP ratio in the region at 97.6%, down just slightly from last year’s 97.7% and was the only area where SP to OLP fell.
• For the year to date, regional SP to OLP ratio is 98.7%, up from last year’s 98.3%. 

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in November was 16 days, down from 22 days last year but up from 14 days last month.
• Condos have a median DOM of 12, while townhomes have a median DOM of 14, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 21.
• November’s median DOM was six days below the 5-year average of 22 days and 10 days below the 10-year average of 26 days.
• The highest November median DOM of the last 10 years was 43 days in 2011 and the previous decade low was 21 days in November of 2013.
• Prince George’s County has the highest median days-on-market in the region at 21, down from 25 days last year.
• Alexandria City has the lowest median DOM of 7 days, down from 19 days last year.
• All jurisdictions saw declines in median DOM compared to last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 13 days, down from 15 days for the same period last year.

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 95,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.