Lowest level of new listings for any month on record

OVERVIEW

As the year concludes, most indicators point to a healthier market than last year, but several clues reveal a possible softening of demand in the near-term.  Sales numbers and the median price are up from this time last year, but new contracts have declined slightly for the 2^nd straight month. Additionally, unseasonable declines in sales and median price from November could be an early sign of weakening demand.  The market is experiencing historically low inventory, with active listings at their lowest December-level in nearly a decade, and new listings at their lowest level for any month on record. While intuitively low supply would put upward pressure on prices, it could be that many buyers are deciding to delay their home purchase until more options become available on the market, which is loosening the pressure on pricing as evidenced by the $11,000 drop in the median sale price from November.  Many potential sellers could be hesitant to enter the market during the winter months, so an increase in the spring inventory would likely entice buyers back into the market, and push median prices back up.

Both measures below the 10-year September averages; Prices relatively stable, low inventory playing a role

OVERVIEW

Sales activity has slowed in the Baltimore Metro Area housing market as we end September. All property segments posted lower than average sales for the month, which could be an early sign that demand has weakened. New contract activity is also down relative to the 10-year September average. Despite the slower growth, sales activity, new contracts, and median sales price are all above their September 2011 levels, and in many cases are at multi-year September highs, which indicates a...