Pending sales hit 10-year March high in Baltimore Metro

New pending contracts up 17.9%; Home sales up 11%; Prices up 3.2%;

Rockville, MD – (April 11, 2016) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of ShowingTime RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on March MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $237,350 was up $7,275 (+3.2%) from last year and up $12,350 (+5.5%) from last month.    
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was nearly $760 million, up 13.5% from last year.
• Sales in March were up 11.2% year-over-year, the 20^th consecutive month of increases.
• The 4,553 new pending sales broke the previous high of 4,387 set in April 2015, and was a 17.9% increase over last March. 
• This is the best March since 2007 for new listings, and continues the trend of increases in new listings seen since April 2013 (except for the January 2016 weather-related decline).
• The number of active listings declined by 2.5%, the seventh month in a row of declining inventory growth.  Inventory levels appear likely to continue to fall.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in March was 93.1%.
• The median days-on-market for March 2016 was 63 days, down three days from last year and last month.

• The regional median sales price for March 2016 of $237,350 is up 3.2% or $7,275 from last year and up $12,350 or 5.5% from last month.  Year-over-year, townhome prices were up 13.6%, condo prices were up 10.6% and single-family detached prices were up 1.9%.
• March prices are 18.7% above the 2011 bottom, but 11.8% below the peak of 2007.
• Baltimore City saw the highest year-over-year appreciation at +22.8% but still remains the most affordable locale with a median sales price of $107,450. 
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a March median sales price of $373,000, a 2.2% increase over last year.  Harford County was the only area where prices declined.

• March 2016 sales volume of 2,816 was up 11.2% compared to 2015, and up 25.3% compared to last month.  Single-family detached prices were up 9.6%, while townhomes were up 12.6% and condos were up 14.4%.
• Sales are significantly above both the 5-year average of 2,249 and the 10-year average of 2,165.
• The number of closed sales in March was 73.2% above the 10-year market low of 1,626 seen in March 2009 and only 4.7% less than the high of 2,956 sales seen in March 2007.
• Baltimore City saw a small decline (-0.2%) in the number of sales, while all other jurisdictions had increases.  The largest gain in sales was in Harford County, where sales increased by 25.1%.
• For January-March, all jurisdictions in the region showed double-digit gains in the number of sales except Baltimore City, where the gain is only 2.2%. 

• March 2016 pending sales were 4,553, an increase of 17.9% compared to last year.
• The number of pending contracts for single-family detached homes rose 23.1% compared to last year, with townhomes up by 14.4% and condos up by 5.4%. 
• Pending contracts are 26.4% and 47.3% above the 5- and 10-year averages, respectively.
• The number of new pending contracts in March surpassed last year’s high of 3,861 by 17.9%.  It was more than double the 10-year market low of 1,948 seen in 2009.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed increases in the number of pending contracts in March compared to last year.  Baltimore City had the smallest year-over-year gain at 5.3%, all other jurisdictions showed double-digit increases, with Carroll County substantially ahead at 28.1%.

• There were 6,030 total new listings added in March in the Baltimore Metro area, which was a 22.9% increase compared to last March, and a 51.2% increase compared to last month.
• The number of new single-family detached listings increased by 25.8% compared to last year, while townhomes increased 22.2% and condo new listings increased by 10.6%.
• New listings were 26.6% and 20.6% above the 5- and 10-year averages, respectively.
• The number of new listings in March was up 45.9% compared to the market low in 2013, but was 2.6% below the 2007 high.
• New listing activity across the region was up, with Carroll County showing the largest gain at 36.2% and Harford County the least at 13.7%.

• Active inventories dropped by 2.5% compared to last March, continuing the downward trend in inventory levels that started in September 2015.  Active inventories declined for all property types for the third month in a row.  Inventory levels were up 6.4% from last month.
• Active inventory of 11,228 listings are 1.7% above the 5-year average and 18.9% below the 10-year average.
• March inventories are 16.6% above the trough of 2013, but are down 39% from the 2008 peak.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed a decline in active inventories in March, except Baltimore City, where inventories rose 3.8%.  The largest decline (-8.3%) was in Anne Arundel County.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for March was 93.1%, up just slightly from last year’s 92.7% and from last month’s 92%.
• The March average SP to OLP ratio of 93.1% is above the 5 and 10-year averages of 92.3% and 91.3%, respectively.
• Over the last decade, the highest March average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2007, where it was 95.5%; the lowest was recorded in 2011 at 86%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 95.7% of their original listing price in March, the highest in the region, and just slightly above last year’s 95%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 89.7%, down from last year’s 91%.  All other jurisdictions increased.

• Half of the homes sold in March in the Baltimore Metro region were on the market for 63 days or less, representing a decrease of three days versus the median DOM last month and last year.
• Condos still sell fastest, with a median DOM of 49, while townhomes have a median DOM of 53 and single-family detached have a median DOM of 74.
• DOM of 63 days is below the 5-year average of 66 days and the 10-year average of 79 days.
• The median DOM was 11 days higher than the 10-year March low of 52 days recorded in 2013, but a decline of 48 days compared to the peak DOM of 111 days in March 2009.
• Median DOM increased by 9 days in Baltimore City to 62, and by 8 days in Carroll County to 82, while in the rest of the jurisdictions in the region they dropped, with the largest decline in Howard County, which dropped from 64 DOM to 39.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.  Data provided by ShowingTime RBI, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com