October prices remain high in DC area as inventories decline for 18th consecutive month

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $413,125 at highest October level in decade; closed sales and pending contracts at October highs

Rockville, MD – (November 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on October 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro median sales price of $413,125 was up 3.3% or $13,125 compared to last year and up 2.0% or $8,125 compared to last month.  This is the highest October price of the decade and the 13^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was more than $2.2 billion, up 12.8% from last year.
• Closed sales of 4,320 were up 8.8% compared to last year and up 6.9% compared to last month.  
• New contracts of 4,969 were up 2.2% compared to last year and up 3.3% compared to last month. 
• New listings of 5,770 were up 6.9% compared to last year but down 17.2% below last month.
• Active listings of 10,105 are down 2.8% compared to last year and down 7.3% compared to last month. This is the 18th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in October was 98.0%.
• The median days-on-market for October 2017 was 17 days, six days lower than last year.

• October’s regional median sales price of $413,125 was an increase of 3.3% or $13,125 compared to last year, and was up 2.0% or $8,125 compared to last month.  This is the 13^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and was the highest October level of the last 10 years.
• Compared to last year, townhome prices rose 3.8% to $410,000, single-family detached home prices increased 3.7% to $508,180, and condo prices rose 3.0% to $307,000. 
• October prices are above the 5-year average of $398,425 and the 10-year average of $367,615.
• The overall regional price of $413,125 is 3.3% above the $400,000 seen in October 2016 and 2014 and is 30.5% higher than the market low of $316,500 seen in 2009.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $606,950, down 13.6% from last year. 
• Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $285,000, a 6.7% increase over last year. 
• For the year to date, the regional median sales price of $426,000 is up 2.7%.

• Closed sales of 4,320 were up 8.8% from last year and up 6.9% from last month. 
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 16.0% to 1,250, townhome sales were up 15.3% to 1,208, and single-family detached sales were up 1.0% to 1,862.
• Sales remain well above both the 5-year average of 3,967 and the 10-year average of 3,635.
• October’s closed sales were 53.5% above the market low of 2,815 seen in October 2011 and were 3.6% above the decade’s previous high of 4,170 seen in 2009.
• Sales activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest gain in Fairfax City (+113.6% or 25 sales) and the largest decline in Falls Church City ( -7.7% or 1 sale). 
• Year-to-date sales are up 4.4% to 47,239.  All jurisdictions except Montgomery County (-0.1% or 8 sales) show gains in sales, with the largest percentage gain in Fairfax City (+38.8% or 109 sales) and the smallest in Fairfax County (+2.7% or 363 sales).   

• New pending sales of 4,969 were up 2.2% compared to last year, and were up 3.3% compared to last month.
• Condo pending sales increased 3.8% to 1,325, townhome pending sales increased 3.6% to 1,337, and pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 0.5% to 2,306.
• Pending sales are above the 5-year average of 4,721 and the 10-year average of 4,297.
• October’s new pending sales were 80.0% more than the October 2008 low of 2,761.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest percentage increase in Falls Church City, which was up from 12 new pending sales to 15 or 25.0%, and the smallest increase in Montgomery County, where new pending sales were up 0.5% or 6.  Only Fairfax City saw pending sales decline, from 33 to 31 (-6.1%).

• October’s 5,770 new listings were up 6.9% from last year, but were down 17.2% from last month.
• Compared to last year, new condo listings were up 13.0% to 1,644, new townhome listings were up 7.8% to 1,467, and new single-family listings were up 2.9% to 2,658.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 5,724 and the 10-year average of 5,570. 
• October new listings are 25.8% above the 10-year low of 4,588 seen in October 2012, and are 6.4% below the prior peak of 6,164 seen in 2015.
• Across the region, Falls Church City saw the only percentage decrease in new listings (-62.5% to 9).  The largest percentage increase was in Fairfax City (+21.2% to 40).
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the entire DC Metro area are up 2.6% compared to last year to 67,339.

• There were 10,105 active listings at the end of October, down 2.8% compared to last year and down 7.3% compared to last month.  Inventory levels have declined for 18 consecutive months.
• Condo inventories were virtually flat at 2,721, while townhome inventories were down 0.8% to 1,957 and single-family detached inventories were down 2.8% to 5,418.
• Inventories are below both the 5-year average of 10,869, and the 10-year average of 13,174.
• October inventory levels exceed the 2012 low of 8,766 by 15.3%, but are down 57.1% from the peak of 23,544 seen in October 2008.
• Across the region, inventory levels showed the largest gain in Washington D.C., where they increased 16.1% to 1,595.  The largest percentage decline was in Falls Church City (-53.7% to 19).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for October was 98.0%, up from both last year’s 97.4% and last month’s 97.6%. 
• Townhomes have the highest October SP to OLP ratio of 98.7%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 98.1% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.5%.
• October’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.4% and the 10-year average of 95.7%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest October average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2008, when it was 92.2%.  Prior to this year, the highest October SP to OLP ratio had been the 97.7% seen in 2013.
• Washington D.C. had the highest regional SP to OLP ratio of 99.0%, up from last year’s 98.7%.
• Falls Church City had the lowest SP to OLP ratio of 96.3%, down from last year’s 97.7%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 99.0%, up just slightly from last year’s 98.8%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in October was 17 days, down six days from last year’s 23 days, and down three days from last month’s 20 days.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 13, while condos have a median DOM of 15, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 22.
• October’s median DOM was four days below the 5-year average of 21 days and 14 days below the 10-year average of 31 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 17 is the second-lowest October level in a decade (the lowest was 16 days in 2013).  The highest October median DOM of the last 10 years was 64 days in 2008.
• The highest median DOM in the region in October was in Falls Church City, where it was 64 days, up from 16 days last year. 
• Washington D.C. has the lowest median DOM of 9 days, down from 12 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 15 days, down from 20 days last year.

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

  About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.