November closed sales in DC area dip for fourth consecutive month versus 2017

Washington D.C. Metro prices of $449,900 at record November level despite cooling sales; inventories increase for two months in a row for the first time since early 2016

Rockville, MD – (December 11, 2018) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro area had a November median home price of $449,900, up 5.9% or $24,900 from last November.  This was, by far, the highest November level of the decade.  Prices were also up 5.5% or $23,425 from last month. 
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $2 billion, down 9.1% from last year.
• November closed sales of 3,602 were down a significant 11.8% compared to last year, the fourth consecutive month of declining year-over-year sales. 
• New pending sales were also down, but by only a slight 0.8% to 4,215.
• New listings compared to last year were nearly flat at 4,319.
• Active listings compared to last year rose for the second month in a row, up 2.1% to 8,812.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in November was 97.4%, the same as last year.

• Median sales prices of $449,900 were up 5.9% compared to last year and up 5.5% compared to last month.  This is the 26^th consecutive month of year-over-year price appreciation, and the largest increase since May of 2017.
• Compared to last year, prices for single-family detached homes rose by 6.4% to $553,500, townhomes rose by 4.9% to $430,000, and condo prices rose a slight 1.0% to $307,000.
• Prices are well above the 5-year average of $418,380 and the 10-year average of $386,285.
• This month’s median sales price of $449,900 is 40.4% higher than the $320,500 of 11/2009.
• Falls Church City continues to have the highest median sales price in the region.  At $831,000, it is up 3.9% compared to last year.
• Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area, with a median sales price of $287,750, a 5.8% increase over last year.
• Washington D.C. had the largest percentage increase in prices this month, up 9.3% to $600,000.  Fairfax City saw the largest decrease of 14.2% to $505,000.
• For the year-to-date, prices are up 3.4% across the DC metro area to $440,000.

• November’s closed sales of 3,602 were down 11.8% from last year and 11.2% from last month.
• Sales of all property types were down compared to last year, with single-family detached homes down 10.7% to 1,679, condos down 11.7% to 975, and townhomes down by 13.8% to 944.
• Sales are just above the 5-year average of 3,593 and the 10-year average of 3,470.
• November closed sales were 23.1% above the November 2011 market low of 2,926.
• Sales in Falls Church City increased by 26.7% to 19, the only increase in the region.  Fairfax City was flat at 24 sales.
• All other areas in the region were down, with Fairfax County down -4.1% to 1,068, followed by Alexandria City (-6.2% to 198), Montgomery County (-13.8% to 805), Prince George’s County (-14.0% to 706), Washington D.C. (-17.8% to 584) and Arlington County (-21.7% to 198).
• For the DC metro area for the year-to-date, closed sales are down 2.6% to 50,259.  

• Year-over-year new pending sales declined for the fourth month in a row, although by a much smaller percentage, down only 0.8% to 4,215.  They were down 11.0% from last month.  
• New pending sales of condos were up 4.8% to 1,189, but townhomes were down 2.4% to 1,124 and single-family detached homes were down 3.2% to 1,897.  
• Pending sales are above both the 5-year average of 4,141, and the 10-year average of 3,870.
• New pending sales this month were 36.6% more than the November 2009 low of 3,085.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mixed.   The 18 sales in Falls Church City were double that of last year.  Arlington County (+46.3 to 275), Alexandria City (+38.6 to 273) and Fairfax County (+0.5 to 1,111) saw increases.  Prince George’s (-5.5% to 966), Washington D.C.  (-6.9% to 703), Fairfax City (-10.0% to 27) and Montgomery County (-10.6% to 842) declined.  

• New listings in November rose a slight 0.3% to 4,319 compared to last year and were down a seasonal 30.5% compared to last month. 
• Compared to last year, new listings of single-family homes rose 11.1%, to 2,110.  Townhome listings were down 8.2% to 1,094, and new condo listings were down 8.7% to 1,110.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 4,114 and the 10-year average of 3,987. 
• November new listings are 26.0% above the 10-year low of 3,428 seen in November 2012.
• New listings in Falls Church City doubled from 6 to 12.  They were also up in Montgomery County (+4.6% to 909), in Washington D.C. (+1.8 to 896), in Prince George’s County (+1.2% to 1,090), and in Fairfax County (+0.9% to 1,027).  New listings were flat in Arlington County at 200, and were down in Fairfax City (-27.8 to 26) and in Alexandria City (-28.4% to 159).
• For the year to date, regional new listings are down 0.5% compared to last year at 71,408.

• Active inventories of 8,812 were up 2.1% compared to last year but were down 15.1% from last month.  This is the second month in a row that year-over-year inventories have increased after more than 2 years of declines.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached inventories were up 8.4% to 4,887 and townhome inventories were up 1.7% to 1,757.  Condo inventories were down 9.9% to 2,147. 
• Inventories remain below both the 5-year average of 9,457 and the 10-year average of 10,492.
• November inventory levels are 12.5% above the 2012 low of 7,830 and are down 42.4% from the peak of 15,309 seen in November 2010.
• Inventory levels increased in Falls Church City (+145.5% to 27), Prince George’s County (+14.5% to 2,184), in Washington D.C. (+14.1% to 1,635) and in Montgomery County (+4.0% to 2,135).  Active inventories declined in Fairfax County (-2.8% to 2,182), Fairfax City (-18.6% to 57), Arlington County (-26.7% to 349), and in Alexandria City (-44.0% to 243).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 97.4%, the same as last November, but down from last month’s 97.8%.
• Townhomes have the highest November SP to OLP ratio of 98.5%, followed by condos with a SP to OLP ratio of 97.4%, and single-family detached homes with a SP to OLP ratio of 96.7%.
• November’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.1% and the 10-year average of 96.2%.
• Over the last decade, the highest November average sales price to original listing price ratio was in November 2013 when it was 97.5%.  The lowest was in 2011, when it was just 93.7%.
• Washington D.C. had the highest SP to OLP ratio of 97.9%, down from 98.5% last year.
• Prince George’s County had the lowest SP to OLP ratio of 96.9%, down from last year’s 97.5%.
• Across the D.C. Metro area for the year to date, the SP to OLP ratio is 98.3%, up from last year’s 98.1%.

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.