November closed sales in Baltimore area dip for third consecutive month versus 2017

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $264,700 at new November record; Sales decline for third month in a row; Inventories increase for second month in a row

Rockville, MD – (December 11, 2018) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $264,700 was up 4.2% from last year, and at the highest November price level of the decade.  It was also up 1.8% from last month.
• Sales volume of more than $772 million was down 12.5% from last year.
• Closed sales of 2,501 were down 16.7% compared to last year, the third consecutive month of declining sales and the largest year-over-year decline since May of 2011.
• New pending sales compared to last year were also down a significant 8.9% to 2,945.
• New listings increased by a slight 1.4% compared to last year to 3,641.
• The 10,027 active listings at the end of November were up 3.2% from last year, the second month in a row that inventory levels have increased.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in November was 95.8%, well above last year’s 95.0% and at the highest November level of the decade.

• November’s overall regional median sales price of $264,700 is up 4.2% or $10,700 from last year and is up 1.8% or $4,800 from last month. This was the highest November price of the decade.
• Condo prices were up 9.6% to $213,750. Single-family detached home prices were up 3.0% to $345,000, bouncing back from the loss posted in October.  Townhome prices were down a slight 0.6% to $197,000.
• Prices remain well above the 5-year average of $243,740 and the 10-year average of $237,125.
• Prices are 19.1% above the November 2011 low of $222,250.
• Howard County continues to have the highest prices in the region, with a November median sales price of $419,950, a 12.0% increase over last year, the largest increase in the region.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area, with a November price of $133,500, up 6.8% from last year. 
• Carroll County was the only jurisdiction in the region where prices declined, down 5.0% to $315,000.  Elsewhere, prices were up:  Harford County (+5.9% to $251,000), Baltimore County (+3.1% to $235,000) and Anne Arundel County (+2.8% to $345,000).
• For the year to date, regional median sales prices are up 3.1% to $268,000.

• Closed sales of 2,501 in November were down a significant and non-seasonal 16.7% compared to last year and were down 11.2% from last month.  This was the third consecutive month of declining year-over-year closed sales and the largest decline since May of 2011.
• Sales of all property types were down compared to last year, with single-family detached sales down 13.5% to 1,328, townhome sales down 20.1% to 911 and condo sales down 20.2% to 261. 
• November sales are below the 5-year average of 2,579 but remain above the 10-year average of 2,258.
• November sales were 54.2% more than the trough of 1,622 seen in November 2010.
• All areas in the region saw decreases in closed sales, with the smallest percentage decline in Harford County (-6.8% to 286), followed by Anne Arundel (-13.4% to 577), Howard County      (-18.1% to 276), Baltimore City (-18.8% to 549), Baltimore County (-19.6% to 672), and the largest in Carroll County (-22.1% to 141).  
• Across the region, year-to-date closed sales are down 2.8% to 36,433.

• There were 2,945 new pending sales in November, down 8.9% compared to last year and down 13.3% compared to last month. 
• Pending sales of single-family detached homes were down 6.9% to 1,513, townhome pending sales were down 8.1% to 1,161 and condo pending sales declined 22.2% to 267.
• Pending contracts are below the 5-year average of 3,047 but remain above the 10-year average of 2,528.
• The number of new pending contracts in November was 88.7% more than the 10-year market low of 1,561 seen in November 2009 and was 11.2% below the November 2016 peak of 3,316.
• All jurisdictions saw declines in pending contracts, with the smallest percentage decrease in Howard County (-5.4% to 296) and the largest decline in Carroll County (-15.0% to 159).

• November’s new listings of 3,641 were up a slight 1.4% compared to last year but were down a seasonal 23.8% compared to last month.  
• New single-family detached listings increased 3.7% to 1,818 and new townhome listings were up a slight 0.3% to 1,488, but new condo listings decreased 6.2% to 333.
• New listings exceed the 5-year average of 3,511 and the 10-year average of 3,183.
• The number of new November listings exceeded the 2011 market low of 2,500 by 45.6% and was just 0.6% below the November 2015 high of 3,663.    
• New listing activity across the region was mixed, with increases in Carroll County (+8.4% to 206), Baltimore County (+7.0 to 994), and Anne Arundel County (+1.5% to 750).  Baltimore City (-0.7% to 1,049), Harford County (-2.2% to 313) and Howard County (-8.1% to 329) declined. 
• For the year to date, new listings across the region are up 0.8% to 54,722.

• The 10,027 active listings at the end of November were up 3.2% from last year but were down 6.0% from last month.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached inventories were up 5.4% to 5,523 while townhome inventories were up 2.4% to 3,661.  Condo inventories were down 8.2% to 824.
• Inventories remain well below both the 5-yr average of 11,377 and the 10-yr average of 12,673.
• November inventories are 41.9% below the peak level of 17,251 seen in 2010.  Last year’s 9,712 is the lowest November inventory level of the decade.
• Inventory levels rose in Baltimore County (+10% to 2,448), Anne Arundel County (+5.1% to 2,305), Howard County (+1.8% to 832), Baltimore City (+1.4% to 3,069) and Carroll County (+0.4% to 557).  Only Harford County (-8.8% to 816) saw a decline in active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 95.8%, up from last year’s 95.0%, and also up just slightly from last month’s 95.7%.  This was easily the highest November level of the decade.
• Townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.1%, while condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.9% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.6%.
• This November’s SP to OLP ratio remains well above both the 5-year average of 94.2% and the 10-year average of 92.6%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest November average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2010 when it was 88.5%, and the previous high was last November’s 95.0%.
• All jurisdictions saw an increase in SP to OLP ratio this month.
• The highest SP to OLP ratio was in Howard County, where it was 96.7%, up from last year’s 96.3%. 
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio was in Baltimore City, where it was 93.6%, up significantly from last year’s 91.9%. 
• For the year to date, the regional SP to OLP ratio of 97.7% is up solidly from last year’s 96.3%.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.