DC Metro housing supply growth continues

Sales down from July 2013; Listing Activity up

OVERVIEW

The Washington, DC Metro Area continues to have lower levels of buyer activity than in 2013.  Closed sales have now decreased from their prior year during every month in 2014, and decreased 8.4 percent from last July.  New pending contracts have had year-over-year decreases for eight consecutive months.  In July, new pending contracts fell 4.8 percent, with decreases in each property segment.   Despite the lower buyer activity relative to 2013, closed sales and new pending contracts continue to be higher than in 2010, 2011 and 2012.  The median sales price increased modestly from last year, rising 0.7 percent.  This increase was driven by townhomes and condo properties, with condos reaching their highest July-level since 2007, and townhomes reaching their highest level on record, with data starting in 1997. 

Inventory continues to rise and active listings reached their highest level of any month since November 2011.  However, the number of homes for sale remains low, at just 43.2 percent of its peak-level.  New listings continue to rise, and have now increased from the prior year for five consecutive months.

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CLOSED SALES

Seventh consecutive month of year-over-year declines; decreases in all property segments.  In July, there were 4,539 closed sales in the Washington DC Metro Area.  This is 8.4 percent, or 414, fewer sales than this time last year and marks the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year declines.  But closed sales remained higher than the July-levels in 2010 through 2012.  All property segments had fewer closed sales than July 2013.  Sales for single-family detached homes decreased 13.2 percent, or by 330 sales, from last year and had the sharpest decline of all property segments.  Sales for townhomes decreased 5.3 percent, or by 66 sales, while those for condo properties decreased 1.6 percent, or by 19 sales.  As compared to last month, the number of sales decreased 9.3 percent, which is a milder decrease the 10-year average June to July change of -10.5 percent. 

PRICES

Modest increase in prices led by townhomes and condo properties.  At $428,000, the median sales price for the region increased 0.7 percent, or by $3,000, from last July.  This is the highest July-level for the region since 2007.  The median sales price for single-family detached homes fell 1.2 percent, or by $6,750, to $535,000 and was the only property segment to have a lower median sales price than last year.  At $418,000, the median sales price for townhomes increased by $19,000, or 4.8 percent, from last July.  The median sales price for condo properties increased 3.4 percent, or by $10,000, from July 2013 to $300,000. 

Of the jurisdictions, the city of Alexandria had the highest growth in in median sale price, rising 9.3 percent.  The median sales price in Prince George’s County rose by nearly as much and increased 8.8 percent.  Three jurisdictions in the area had declines in median sales price from this time last year: the city of Fairfax (-9.2 percent), Montgomery County (-1.5 percent) and Fairfax County (-1.1 percent).

NEW CONTRACTS

Decreases in all property segments; eighth consecutive year-over-year decline.  The number of new contracts declined from last July, falling by 4.8 percent, or by 240 contracts, to 4,773 contracts.  This is the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year decreases.  But the number of contracts is above its July-levels in 2006 through 2012.  All property segments had fewer contracts than last July.  New contracts for townhomes fell the most, and decreased 7.6 percent, or by 100 contracts.  New contracts for condos declined 7.3 percent, or by 99 contracts, from last July, while those for single-family detached homes decreased 1.9 percent, or by 44 contracts.  New contracts decreased 7.4 percent from last month, which is a milder decline than the ten-year average June to July change of -8.5 percent. 

INVENTORY

Highest number of active listings since November 2011; increases in new listings in all property segments. Active listings in the Washington, DC Metro Area increased 33.5 percent, or by 2,808 listings, from last July to 11,119 listings.  Active listings have now increased from the prior year for ten months in a row and have reached their highest level of any month in nearly three years.  Despite these gains, active listings are 56.8 percent lower than their 2007 peak.  Of the property segments, active listings for townhomes had the largest increase from last year, rising 45.3 percent.  Active listings for condo properties rose 37.7 percent.  There were 6,431 active listings for single-family detached homes, 28.3 percent more than this time last year.

For the fifth consecutive month, new listings were above their year-ago level.  There were 6,282 new listings in July, an increase of 8.1 percent, or 470 listings, from July 2013.  New listings for townhomes had the highest growth of the property segments and rose 9.3 percent, or by 137 listings from last year.  New listings of single-family detached homes rose 8.9 percent, or by 253 listings, from this time last year, and those for condo properties increased 5.2 percent or by 77 listings. Homes continue to sell quickly and the median days-on-market is 17.  While this is five days higher than last year, it is lower than the 10-year July-level average of 29 days.

About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The bulk of this report’s content is readily available, down to the ZIP code level of granularity, via interactive charts and reports offered via SmartCharts PRO, a premium subscription service offered to real estate professionals interested in growing their business with the help of industry-leading and user-friendly analytics. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia.

About the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University

The Center for Regional Analysis conducts research and analytical studies on economic, fiscal, demographic, housing, and social and policy issues related to the current and future growth of the Virginia, Maryland, and DC areas. Through its range of research and programs — major economic impact studies, economic forecasts, fiscal analyses, conferences and seminars, publications, information services, and data products — the Center’s activities strengthen decision-making by businesses, governments, and institutions throughout the Greater Washington region.  Visit http://cra.gmu.edu to learn more.