DC Metro housing market goes from torrid to merely hot in July

Washington D.C. Metro home prices at July high of $439,900; July closed and pending sales both near record July levels; inventories decline for 15^th month in a row.

Rockville, MD – (August 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on July 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro median sales price of $439,900 was up 1.1% or $4,900 compared to last year but was down 3.3% or $15,100 compared to last month.  This is the highest July price of the decade.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was over $2.8 billion, up 6.8% from last year.
• Closed sales of 5,157 were up 2.2% compared to last year but were down 16.0% compared to last month.
• New contract activity of 5,116 dropped 2.9% compared to last year and 14.2% compared to last month.
• New listings of 6,282 were up 0.9% compared to last year.
• Active listings of 10,276 are down 6.1% compared to last year and down 2.0% compared to last month. This is the 15th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in July was 98.3%.
• The median days-on-market for July 2017 was 14 days, three days lower than last year.

• July’s regional median sales price rose 1.1% to $439,900, an increase of $4,900 compared to last year, but down 3.3% or $15,100 compared to last month.
• Compared to last year, townhome prices increased 3.1% to $420,000, single-family detached home prices increased 2.8% to $560,000 and condo prices rose 2.7% to $310,000. 
• July prices remain above the 5-year average of $432,080, and the 10-year average of $402,590.
• The overall regional price of $439,900 is 23.9% above the July 2009 low of $355,000.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $830,000, up 17.2%. 
• Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $281,980, a 4.4% increase over last year.  Prince George’s County also has the highest year to date price appreciation, up 10.0% compared to last year.
• For the year to date, the regional median sales price is up 3.1% to $430,000 compared to the same period of 2016.

• Closed sales of 5,157 were up 2.2% from last year but down 16.0% from last month.
• Compared to last year, townhome sales were up 5.4% to 1,353 and condo sales were up 5.3% to 1,381.  Single-family detached sales were down 1.1% to 2,423.
• Sales remain above both the 5-year average of 4,984 and the 10-year average of 4,573.
• July’s closed sales were 32.8% above the market low of 3,881 seen in July 2008, but were down 1.3% from the peak of 5,225 seen in 2015.
• Sales activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest gain in Falls Church City (+26.3% or 5 sales) and the largest decline in Montgomery County ( -7.2% or 90 sales). 
• For the year-to-date, all jurisdictions to show gains in sales, with the largest in Falls Church City (+35.9% or 38 sales) and the smallest in Montgomery County (+1.2% or 90 sales).  Across the region, YTD sales are up 5.5% to 33,195.

• New pending sales of 5,116 were down 2.9% compared to last year’s record July level of 5,267 and down 14.2% compared to last month.
• Only condos saw an increase in new pending sales, up 2.1% to 1,416.  New pending sales of single-family detached were down 3.4% to 2,366 and townhomes were down 6.6% to 1,334.
• Pending sales remain above the 5-year average of 5,078 and the 10-year average of 4,611.
• July’s new pending sales were 44.9% more than the July 2010 low of 3,530.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mixed, with the largest percentage increase in Falls Church City, which was up from 14 new pending sales to 19 (+35.7%).  The largest decrease was in Montgomery County, where they dropped 8.0% to 1,156.
• For the year-to-date, regional new pending sales of 39,370 are up 0.8% compared to last year.

• The 6,282 new listings in July were up 0.9% from last year but down 19.5% from last month.     
• New single-family listings were up 3.5% to 3,073 compared to last year, but new condo listings were down 0.4% to 1,628 and townhome listings were down 2.4% to 1,580.
• New listings nearly equal the 5-year average of 6,283 and are just slightly above the 10-year average of 6,070. 
• July new listings are 37.2% above the 10-year low of 4,579 seen in July 2012, but are 11.7% below the 2008 high of 7,115.
• Across the region, Falls Church City saw the largest percentage decrease in new listings (-10.7% to 25) while the largest percentage increase was in Fairfax City (+26.4% to 67 listings).
• For the year to date, new listings across the entire DC Metro are up 1.5% compared to last year to 48,479.

• The 10,276 active listings at the end of July were down 6.1% compared to last year and down 2.0% compared to last month.   
• All property types showed decreases in inventory levels over last year, with condo inventories down 9.8% to 2,538, townhome inventories down 5.3% to 1,967, and single-family detached inventories down 4.7% to 5,761.
• Inventories are below both the 5-year average of 10,675, and the 10-year average of 13,601.
• July inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 8,391 by 22.5%, but are down 58.9% from the peak of 24,994 seen in July 2008.
• Across the region, inventory levels rose only in Washington, D.C. (+7.9% to 1,363), and in Prince George’s County, (+3.4% to 1,869).  The largest percentage decline was in Fairfax County (-13.2% to 3,253).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for July was 98.3%, up from last year’s 97.9%, but down from last month’s 98.5%. 
• Townhomes have the highest July SP to OLP ratio of 99.1%.  Single-family detached homes and condos both have a SP to OLP ratio of 98.0%.
• July’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 98.1% and the 10-year average of 96.3%.
• Over the last decade, the region’s July average sales price to original listing price ratio ranged from a low of 93.1% in 2008 to a high of 98.5% in July 2013. 
• Falls Church City had the highest regional SP to OLP ratio at 99.5% of original listing price, up from last year’s 99.1%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Fairfax City, where the average ratio was 97.5%, up from last year’s 97.2%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 98.3%, higher than last year’s 97.6%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in July was 14 days, down from 17 days last year but up two days from last month.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 11, while condos have a median DOM of 15 and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 16.
• July’s median DOM was two days below the 5-year average of 16 days and 12 days below the 10-year average of 26 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 14 is the second-lowest July level in a decade (the lowest was 12 days in 2013).  The highest July median DOM of the last 10 years was 56 days in 2008.
• The highest median DOM in the region in July was in Montgomery County where it was 16 days, down from 22 days last year. 
• Falls Church City has the lowest median DOM of 4 days, down from 8 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 14 days, down from 19 days last year.

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About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available atwww.econ70.com.