DC area home prices remain high as sales inch up despite tight inventories

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $455,000 at July high; Contracts and closed sales up slightly

Rockville, MD – (August 10, 2018) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on July 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro median sales of $455,000, was up $15,100 or 3.4% from last year and at the highest July level of the decade.  Prices were down 3.4% from last month’s all-time high of $471,000.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $2.9 billion, up 2.8% from last year.
• The 5,223 closed sales in July were up 1.3% compared to last year.
• There were 5,281 new pending sales at the end of July, up 3.2% compared to last year and at the highest July level of the decade.
• New listings of 6,385 were up 1.6% compared to last July.
• The 9,622 active listings at the end of July were down 6.4% compared to last year. This is the 27^th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in July was 98.6%, up from last year’s 98.3% and at the highest July level of the last 10 years.
• The median days-on-market this month was 12 days, down two days from last year and at the lowest July level of the decade.

• July’s median sales price of $455,000 rose 3.4% or $15,100 compared to last year but was down 3.4% or $16,000 compared to last month’s all-time high of $471,000.  This was the 22^nd consecutive month of year-over-year price increases in the D.C. Metro area.
• Both single-family detached and townhome prices rose by 3.6% compared to last year, to $580,000 and $435,000, respectively.  Condo prices were flat at $310,000.
• July prices are above the 5-year average of $438,080 and the 10-year average of $409,990.
• This July’s sales price of $455,000 is 28.2% higher than the July 2009 low of $355,000. 
• Falls Church City continues to have the highest home prices in the region, with a median sales price of $790,000, down 4.8% from last year.
• Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area, with a median sales price of $285,000, a 1.1% increase over last year. 
• For the year-to-date, prices are up 4.0% across the DC metro area to $447,000.

• There were 5,223 closed sales in July, up 1.3% from last year but down 11.3% from last month. 
• Closed sales of all property types increased, with townhome sales rising by 3.5% to 1,400, single-family detached home sales up 0.7% to 2,439 and condo sales up a slight 0.1% to 1,383.
• Sales were above both the 5-year average of 5,038 and the 10-year average of 4,707.
• July’s closed sales were 34.5% above the July 2010 market low of 3,882 and were just two sales below July 2015’s record of 5,225.
• Jurisdictional sales activity was mixed, with more areas showing gains than losses.  The largest percentage gain was in Fairfax City (+13.2% to 43 sales), and the smallest gain was in Washington D.C. (+1.3% to 850).  Arlington County had the smallest decline in closed sales (-1.0% to 294), while Falls Church City had the largest decline (-4.2% to 23).
• For the DC metro area for the year-to-date, closed sales are down 1.0% to 32,872.

• New pending sales in July of 5,281 were up 3.2% from last year but down 9.6% from last month.  This is the highest level of July new pending sales of the decade.
• New pending sales of townhomes were up 6.4% to 1,420, while new pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 2.2% to 2,419 and new condo pending sales were up 1.8% to 1,442.   
• Pending sales are above the 5-year average of 5,132 and the 10-year average of 4,778.
• New pending sales this month were 49.6% more than the July 2010 low of 3,530.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mostly up, with Falls Church City (+15.8% to 22) seeing the largest percentage increase in new pending sales and Fairfax County (+0.1% to 1,456) seeing the smallest.  Fairfax City (-30.6% to 25) saw the only decline.    

• The 6,385 new listings in July were up 1.6% from last year but down 13.1% from last month. 
• New townhome listings were up 8.9% to 1,721 and new condo listings were up 8.1% to 1,760.  New single-family listings were down 5.6% to 2,902.
• New listings are slightly below the 5-year average of 6,398 but are still above the 10-year average of 5,997. 
• July new listings are 39.4% above the 10-year low of 4,579 seen in July 2012 but are 6.3% below the July 2015 peak of 6,814.
• New listings were mixed across the region, with the largest percentage increase in new listings in Washington D.C. (+11.2% to 1,070) and the largest percentage decrease in Fairfax City (-26.9% to 49). 
• For the year to date, new listings of 47,875 are down 1.3% compared to last year.

• With 9,622 active listings at the end of July, inventory levels were down 6.4% compared to last year and down 1.9% compared to last month.  
• Compared to last year, single-family detached inventories were down 8.8% to 5,254, townhome inventories were down 4.3% to 1,883, and condo inventories were down 2.6% to 2,472.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-year average of 10,921 and the 10-year average of 12,064.
• July inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 8,391 by 14.7% and are down 42.0% from the peak of 16,591 seen in July 2010.
• Washington D.C. (+5.4% to 1,436), Prince George’s County (+3.9% to 1,941) and Fairfax City (+1.2% to 85) all saw increases in inventory levels, while inventory levels elsewhere fell, with the smallest percentage decline in Alexandria City (-6.9% to 418) and the largest percentage decline in Falls Church City (-22.2% to 28).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for July was 98.6%, up from last year’s 98.3% but below last month’s 99.0%. 
• Townhomes have the highest July SP to OLP ratio of 99.2%, while single-family detached homes and condos both have SP to OLP ratios of 98.4%.
• July’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 98.1% and the 10-year average of 96.8%.
• Over the last decade, this is the highest July average sales price to original listing price ratio.  The lowest was in 2009, when it was 93.3%. The previous July high had been in 2013 when it was 98.5%.
• Washington D.C. had the highest SP to OLP ratio of 99.2%, up from 99.1% last year.
• Alexandria City had the lowest SP to OLP ratio of 97.8%, down from last year’s 98.2%.
• Across the D.C. Metro area for the year to date, the SP to OLP ratio is 98.5%, up from last year’s 98.3%.

• July’s median days-on-market (DOM) was 12 days, down two days from last year but up two days from last month.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of nine, while single-family detached homes and condos both have a median DOM of 14.
• July’s median DOM was well below the 5-year average of 16 days and the 10-year average of 21 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 12 matches the 12 days seen in 2013, the lowest July level of the decade.  The highest July median DOM of the last 10 years was 37 days in 2009.
• The highest median DOM in the region in July was in Falls Church City, where it was 18 days, up significantly from last year’s 4 days. 
• Fairfax City had the lowest median DOM in the region of six days, down from 14 days last year.
• For the year-to-date across the entire D.C. metro, median DOM is 12 days, down from 14 days last year.

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.