Baltimore Metro prices at highest August level since 2008 as days on market continue to shrink

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $265,000 is at highest August level since 2008; Active inventories and median days on market at decade lows for month of August

Rockville, MD – (September 12, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on August 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $265,000 was up 3.9% or $10,000 from last year but down 1.9% compared to last month. This was the highest August price level since 2008.
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was nearly $1.2 billion, up 7.3% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,804 were up 1.5% compared to last year, and up 6.0% from last month.  This is the highest level of August sales in the last decade.
• New contract activity of 3,832 was down 2.5% from last year and down 5.4% from last month.
• There were 4,749 new listings in August, up 0.9% from last year but down 6.3% from last month.
• Active listings declined by 12.4% to 10,788, the 24^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest August levels in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in August was 95.9%, up from last year’s 95.6% but down from last month’s 96.5%.  This is the highest August level of the decade.
• The median days-on-market was 26 days, down from 29 days last year.

• The August overall regional median sales price of $265,000 is up 3.9% or $10,000 from last year, but down 1.9% or $5,000 from last month.  This is the 18^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and is the highest August price level since 2008.
• Compared to last year, townhome prices were up 6.1% to 204,000, single-family detached prices were up 5.6% to $340,000 and condo prices were up 4.8% to $214,950.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $253,400 and the 10-year average of $250,811.
• August prices are 12.8% above the 2011 low of $235,000 and are only 2.3% below the August 2008 peak of $271,210.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with an August median sales price of $410,000, a 2.5% increase compared to last year. 
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, with an August median sales price of $129,000, a 3.5% decrease compared to last year (the only jurisdiction to see a price decline).
• The highest level of year-over-year price appreciation was in Harford County, where prices rose 8.7% to $265,000.
• For the year-to-date, all jurisdictions show price increases and the overall regional median sales price has increased 4.0% to $260,000.

• There were 3,804 closed sales in August, up 1.5% compared to last year and up 6.0% compared to last month.  This is the highest August level of the decade.    
• Compared to last year, townhome sales were up 3.7% to 1,333, while condos were up 2.8% to 398.  Single-family detached sales were down a slight 0.1% to 2,073. 
• August sales were well above the 5-year average of 3,302 and the 10-year average of 2,727.
• August sales were 97.6% above the 2010 low of 1,925.
• Across the region, Baltimore City saw the largest percentage increase in closed sales (+7.6% to 837) while Harford County saw the highest percentage decline in number of sales (-9.3% to 362).
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region are up 4.3% to 27,813.

• There were 3,832 new pending sales in August, down 2.5% compared to last year and down 5.4% compared to last month. 
• The number of new pending townhome sales increased 5.6% to 1,422 and new pending condo sales increased 4.7% to 427.  Single-family detached pending sales decreased 9.0% to 1,983.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,476 and the 10-year average of 2,851.
• The number of new pending contracts in August was 111.8% more than the 10-year market low of 1,809 seen in August 2008.
• New pending sales were mixed across the region.  Baltimore City saw an increase in new pending sales, up 10.6% to 937 and Howard County rose 1.2% to 422.  Everywhere else, pending sales declined, with the largest decrease in Anne Arundel County, where they dropped 8.0% to 848.
• For the year to date, pending sales across the region are up 1.1% to 33,439.

• There were 4,749 new listings added in August, up 0.9% or 41 from last year, but down 6.3% compared to last month.  This was the highest number of new listings in August in the last decade, up 0.9% from the previous August 2015 high.
• New townhome listings rose 4.4% to 1,786 and new condo listings increased 1.4% to 450.  The number of new single-family detached listings decreased 1.6% to 2,513. 
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 4,538 and the 10-year average of 4,224.
• The number of new listings in August was up 40% compared to the 2011 market low of 3,392.
• Across the region, the largest percentage increase in new listings was in Baltimore City, where they increased 8.2% to 1,176.  The largest percentage decrease in the number of new listings was in Baltimore County, where they declined 4.1% to 1,250.
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the region are up a slight 0.3% to 41,135.

• Active inventories of 10,788 dropped by 12.4% compared to last year, and 1.4% from last month.   Overall inventory levels have declined for 24 consecutive months and are at the lowest August level in a decade. 
• All property types saw declines in Y-o-Y inventory levels, with condo inventories down 16.2% to 971, single-family detached down 13.9% to 6,124, and townhomes down 8.7% to 3,692.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 12,476 and the 10-yr average of 14,667.
• August inventories are 46.0% below the decade high of 19,972 seen in August of 2008, and are 4.1% below the previous August 2013 low of 11,246.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed significant declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 22.5% in Carroll County to 642 active listings, and the smallest percentage decline of 7.6% in Baltimore City to 3,004 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for August was 95.9%, up from last year’s 95.6%, but down from last month’s 96.5%.  This was the highest August level in a decade.
• Townhomes have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 96.0%.  Single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.9% and condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.4%.
• The August SP to OLP ratio is above both the 5-year average of 95.0% and the 10-year average of 93.1%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest August average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, where it was 89.1%, and the previous high was last August where it was 95.6%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 97.0% of their original listing price in August, which continues to be the highest in the region.  It was below last year’s 97.3%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price remains in Baltimore City, where it was 93.6%, up from last year’s 93.4%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 96.6%, up from last year’s 94.8%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in August in the Baltimore Metro region was 26 days, down three days from last year but up four days from last month. This is the lowest August DOM of the last decade.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 23, condos have a median DOM of 24, and single-family detached have a median DOM of 28.
• August’s median DOM of 26 days is well below both the 5-year average of 33 days and the 10-year average of 47 days.
• August’s median DOM of 26 was 49 days less than the peak DOM of 75 days in August 2008.
• Harford County had the highest median DOM of 29 days, down from 35 days last year (-17.1%).
• Howard County has the lowest median DOM in the region of 21 days, down from 26 days last year (-19.2%).
• For the year-to-date, the regional median DOM is 27 days, down from 35 days for the same period last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.