Baltimore Metro price gains continue as inventories hit lowest November level of the decade

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $254,000 sets new November record; Inventories decline by 11.0% to lowest November level of the decade; pending sales show first November decline of the decade.

Rockville, MD – (December 11, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $254,000 was up 5.8 % or $14,000 from last year but down 2.3% or $6,000 compared to last month.
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was nearly $882 million, up 8.4% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,003 were up 4.9% compared to last year and were down 3.0% from last month.
• New contract activity of 3,232 was down 2.5% from last year and down 12.1% from last month.
• The 3,592 new listings were up 2.2% from last year and down a seasonal 23.2% from last month.
• Active listings declined by 11.0% to 9,712, the 27^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest November level in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in November was 95.0%, up from last year’s 94.4% but down from last month’s 95.4%.  This is the highest November level of the last ten years.
• The median days-on-market was 32 days, down eight days compared to last year and the same as last month.

• The November overall regional median sales price of $254,000 is up 5.8% or $14,000 from last year, but is down 2.3% or $6,000 from last month.  This is the highest November price of the decade.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached prices were up 11.7% to $334,950 and townhome prices were up 7.2% to $198,250.  Condo prices were down 2.5% to $195,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $238,690 and the 10-year average of $235,205.
• November prices are 14.3% above the 2011 low of $222,250.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a November median sales price of $375,000, a 2.5% increase compared to last year.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, with a November median sales price of $125,000, a 4.9% decrease compared to last year and the only jurisdiction in the region to show a decline.
• Carroll County saw the largest percentage increase in prices, up 22.8% to $331,500.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median sales price has increased 4.0% to $259,900.

• There were 3,003 closed sales in November, up 4.9% compared to last year but down 3.0% compared to last month.  This was easily the highest November level of the decade.
• Compared to last year, townhome sales were up 11.2% to 1,140, while condo sales were up 1.6% to 327.  Single-family detached sales were up 1.3% to 1,536. 
• November sales were well above the 5-year average of 2,486 and the 10-year average of 2,141.
• November sales were 124.3% above the 2008 low of 1,339.
• Howard County saw the largest percentage increase in closed sales (+10.5% to 337), while Anne Arundel County saw the only percentage decline in number of sales (-2.2% to 666).
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region are up 3.5% to 37,493.

• There were 3,232 new pending sales in November, down 2.5% compared to last year and down 12.1% compared to last month.  This is the first time in ten years that year-over-year sales have declined in November.
• The number of new pending townhome sales increased 5.1% to 1,264 and pending condo sales rose 1.5% to 343.  New pending sales of single-family detached homes decreased 8.5% to 1,625.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 2,933 and the 10-year average of 2,359.
• The number of new pending contracts in November was 157.3% more than the 10-year market low seen in November 2008 of 1,256.
• Baltimore City saw the largest increase in new pending sales, up 6.2% to 888 and Anne Arundel County saw the largest decrease, down 10.7% to 654.

• There were 3,592 new listings added in November, up 2.2% from last year.  New listings were down a seasonal 23.2% compared to last month.  
• New condo listings rose 10.2% to 355 and new townhome listings rose 9.4% to 1,484.  New single-family detached listings decreased 4.6% to 1,753. 
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 3,398 and the 10-year average of 3,124.
• The number of new listings in November was up 43.7% compared to the 2011 market low of 2,500, and was 1.9% below the November 2015 high of 3,663.
• Across the region, the largest percentage increase in new listings was in Baltimore City, where they increased 15.3% to 1,056.  The largest percentage decrease in the number of new listings was in Howard County, where they declined 10.1% to 358.
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the region are up 1.0% to 54,269.

• Active inventories of 9,712 dropped by 11.0% compared to last year, and were down 8.5% from last month.   Overall inventory levels have declined for 27 consecutive months, have declined by double-digits for 17 consecutive months, and are at the lowest November level in a decade. 
• Single-family detached inventories were down 14.1% to 5,238, condo inventories were down 10.1% to 898, and townhome inventories were down 6.3% to 3,576.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 11,651 and the 10-yr average of 13,543.
• November inventories are nearly half the level seen in 2008 and are 9.9% below the previous trough of 10,777 seen in November 2012.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the smallest percentage decline of 2.3% in Baltimore City to 3,027 active listings, and the largest percentage decline of 17.9% in Harford County to 895 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 95.0%, up from last year’s 94.4%, but down from last month’s 95.4%.  This was the highest November level in a decade.
• Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.4%, while single-family detached homes and townhomes both have a SP to OLP ratio of 94.9%.
• The November SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 93.8% and the 10-year average of 92.0%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest November average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2010, when it was 88.5%, and the previous high was last November when it was 94.4%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 96.3% of their original listing price in November, the highest in the region.  It was just slightly above last year’s 96.2%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price remains in Baltimore City, where it was 91.9%, down from last year’s 92.5%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 96.3%, up from last year’s 94.8%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in November in the Baltimore Metro region was 32 days, down eight days from last year and the same as last month. This is the lowest November DOM of the last decade.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 28, condos have a median DOM of 29, and single-family detached have a median DOM of 37.
• November’s median DOM of 32 days is well below both the 5-year average of 42 days and the 10-year average of 57 days.
• November’s median DOM of 32 was 55 days less than the peak DOM of 87 days in November 2008 and was six days less than the previous low of 38 days in November 2013.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 35 days, down from 36 days last year.
• Carroll County and Baltimore County have the lowest median DOM in the region of 28 days, down from 52 and 37 days last year, respectively.
• For the year-to-date, the regional median DOM is 28 days, down from 36 days for the same period last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.