Baltimore Metro New Contracts Continue Faster Pace in November

Significant Movement in Foreclosures and Short Sales

Rockville, MD –(December 12, 2011) – The following analysis of the Baltimore, Maryland Metro area housing market has been prepared by RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), and is based on the November 2011 RBI Pending Home Sales Index™ released today.

View PDF version of this release

OVERVIEW

Baltimore Metro area listing inventory ended November at the lowest level in six years, yet new contract activity continued to remain above last year’s levels for the seventh consecutive month. While the November pending sales level of 2,078 was 6.0% below the October 2011 total of 2,210, the current decline was well below the 13.5% average October to November average decline of the past 10 years. Median sales price also outpaced seasonal patterns, rising 1.5% to $222,250 in November from $219,000 in October.  For the past five years, median sales price has slipped an average of 1.7% from October to November. The market share of foreclosed listings in both sales and inventory continued the previous month’s trend of sharp year-over-year declines.

KEY TRENDS

• Signed contract activity in November 2011 outpaced seasonal expectations.  There were 2,078 new pending sales in November, 6.0% below the 2,210 total in October 2011.  The modest decline was well below the 13.5% average month-over-month decline of the past 10 years.  The amount of signed activity for the month was the highest November total in five years.

• The November median sales price unexpectedly increased over the prior month level.  The median sales price was $222,250 for November 2011, 1.5% higher than the $219,000 level in October 2011.  Median price was expected to slip from the October level, consistent with the 1.7% average 5 year month-over-month decline.  Notably, the $251,750 median sales price for standard sales, or those that were not foreclosures or short sales, represents a 2 year 2.8% appreciation compared to the November 2009 level. Median sales price for bank-mediated homes (including short sales and foreclosures), however, has moved sharply in the opposite direction with a 22.9% decline from $175,000 in November 2009 to $134,850 in November 2011.    

• Lowest active inventory in November in five years; Dramatic drop in new foreclosures.   There were 14,233 active listings at the end of November 2011, the lowest total since November 2005 and 16.6% below the 5 year average of 17,075. The 2,500 new listings entering the market in November represented a 20.9% decline from November 2010 and is the lowest November new listings level on record.   New foreclosure listings entering the market fell 56.1% in November 2011 year-over-year and foreclosure market share of new listings fell to 9.7% from 17.4% in the same period last year.  

• Stark difference in annual change for foreclosed vs. standard closed sales and inventory in November.  1,626 total sales were completed in November, a seasonally consistent .9% increase from October and nominally above the 1,622 level in November 2010. However, the composition of the closed sales category saw a significant shift in terms of bank-mediated properties. Standard sales, those not involving a foreclosure or short sale, jumped 8.7% to 1,260 sales from 1,159 sales in November 2010. Foreclosed listings, on the other hand, fell 37.7% from the same month last year.  Closed short sales were up 24.6% from November 2010, the silver lining is that short sale market share was only 9.3% of all sales, just a slight increase from the 7.5% share over the same period last year.

The RBI Pending Home Sales Index^™ is a two year moving window on the housing market using new pending sales (signed contracts) and median sales price (closed sales). It provides unique insight into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales for each month through the most recent month.The results include new pending sales through and including November 2011.  The market area includes: The City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.