Baltimore Metro home prices up again in April

Home sales up 14.5%, to highest April level in a decade; Prices up 5.7% to $243,000; Inventories decline for eighth consecutive month

Rockville, MD – (May 10, 2016) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of ShowingTime RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on April MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $243,000 was up $13,000 (+5.7%) from last year and up $5,650 (+2.4%) from last month.  This is the highest April sales price since 2008.   
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was nearly $900 million, up 19.9% from last year.
• Sales in April were up 14.5% year-over-year to 3,201, the 21^st consecutive month of increases and the highest April in at least a decade.
• The 4,853 new pending sales broke the previous April high of 4,387 set in 2015 by 10.6% and was the highest monthly new pending sales in a decade.
• With 6,283 new listings, this is the best April since 2007 for new listings, and also the highest monthly level of new listings since June 2007.
• The number of active listings declined by 5.8% to 11,925, the eighth month in a row of declining inventory growth and the fourth month in a row that all property types showed declines in inventory levels.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in April was 94.6%.
• The median days-on-market for April 2016 was 41 days, down seven days from last year.

• The regional median sales price for April 2016 of $243,000 is up 5.7% or $13,000 from last year and up $5,650 or 2.4% from last month. 
• Year-over-year, townhome prices were up 17% to $184,900, condo prices were up 5.1% to $205,000 and single-family detached prices were unchanged at $300,000.
• April prices are 13% above the 2011 bottom of $215,000, but 11.6% below the peak of $275,000 seen in 2007.
• Baltimore City saw the highest year-over-year appreciation at +31.4% but still remains the most affordable locale with a median sales price of $135,000. 
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with an April median sales price of $395,000, a 1.3% increase over last year.  Carroll County was the only area where prices declined, by .02% to $286,250.

• April 2016 sales volume of 3,201 was up 14.5% or 405 units compared to 2015, and up 13.7% or 385 units compared to last month.  Single-family detached sales of 1,733 were up 18.9% and townhome sales of 1,156 were up 13%, but condo sales of 312 were down 1%.
• Sales are significantly above both the 5-year average of 2,516 and the 10-year average of 2,375.
• April sales were at the highest April level in a decade, exceeding the previous 2007 high of 2,959 by 8.2%.  They were 84.1% improved over the 2009 low of 1,739.
• All jurisdictions saw gains in the number of sales, with the largest percentage (+21%) in Baltimore County with 895 sales.  Baltimore City saw the smallest gain, with a 4.5% increase over last year to 715. 

• April 2016 pending sales saw a year-over-year increase of 10.6% to 4,853.  The number of pending contracts for single-family detached homes rose 14.9% to 2,727 and townhomes rose 9.5% to 1,665, while condos declined by 6.5% to 461. 
• Pending contracts are 24.9% and 44.9% above the 5- and 10-year averages, respectively.
• The number of new pending contracts in April surpassed last year’s high of 4,387 by 10.6%.  It was 107.6% more than the 10-year market low of 2,338 seen in 2009.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed increases in the number of pending contracts in April compared to last year.  Baltimore County had the smallest year-over-year gain at 3.6% to 1,234, Anne Arundel County had the largest percentage increase of 23.7% to 1,143.

• There were 6,283 total new listings added in April in the Baltimore Metro area, a 1.3% increase compared to last April, and a 4.2% increase compared to last month.  The number of new single-family detached listings increased by 3% to 3,629, while townhomes increased 0.4% to 2,079 and the number of new listings for condos decreased by 6.1% to 573.
• New listings are above both the 5- and 10-year averages of 5,440 and 5,394.
• The number of new listings in April was up 50.8% compared to the market low of 4,166 in 2012, but was just 1.8% below the 2007 high of 6,397.
• Carroll County showed the largest percentage increase in sales, increasing 9.3% to 423, while Harford County had the largest decrease in sales, declining 0.5% to 626.

• Year-over-year active inventories dropped by 5.8% to 11,925, continuing the downward trend since September 2015.  All property types showed declines, with single-family detached down 7.1% to 6,888, townhomes down 4.5% to 3,865 and condos down 2.3% to 1,171.
• Active inventories are just barely above the 5-year average of 11,923 but are well below the 10-year average of 14,677.
• April inventories are 14.2% above the decade low of 10,440 seen in April of 2013, but are down 38.4% from the 2008 peak of 19,373.
• All jurisdictions in the region continue to show declines in active inventories, with the largest percentage decline of 12.6% in Harford County and the smallest in Baltimore City at 0.1%.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for April was 94.6%, up just slightly from last year’s 93.9% and from last month’s 93.1%.
• The April average SP to OLP ratio of 94.6% is above the 5 and 10-year averages of 93.5% and 92.4%, respectively.
• Over the last decade, the highest April average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2007, where it was 96.3%; the lowest was recorded in 2011 at 87%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 96.7% of their original listing price in April, the highest in the region, and just slightly above last year’s 96.5%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 92%, down from last year’s 93%.  All other jurisdictions increased.

• Half of the homes sold in April in the Baltimore Metro region were on the market for 41 days or less, a decrease of seven days versus the median DOM last year.  Last month it was 63 days.
• This month condos sold the most quickly, with a median DOM of 34, while townhomes have a median DOM of 36 and single-family detached have a median DOM of 45.
• April’s 41 days is below the 5-year average of 47 days and the 10-year average of 60 days.
• The median DOM was five days higher than the 10-year April low of 36 days recorded in 2013, but 52 days lower than the peak DOM of 93 days in April 2011.
• Homes in Howard County sell fastest, with a median DOM of 23, down from 32 days last year, while Carroll County has the highest median DOM of 55 days, down from 67 days last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.  Data provided by ShowingTime RBI, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com