Baltimore Metro contracts, sales continued to outpace 2014 levels in May

Both sales and new contracts at near decade highs; Prices remain unchanged

Rockville, MD – (June 10, 2015) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on May 2015 MRIS housing data.

OVERVIEW

The Baltimore Metro housing market saw large increases in sales, new contracts and inventories compared to May 2014, but median sales prices remained largely unchanged.  Closed sales of 3,229 increased by 16.7% from May 2014 and by 15.5% compared to April 2015.  The number of new contracts increased 18.1% to 4,313 from the prior year, and are at their highest May level in a decade. The median sales price in May in the Baltimore Metro area was $250,000, the same as May of 2014, but up $20,000 compared to last month.  The $289,000 median sales price for “non-distressed” sales (those not involving a short sale or foreclosures) is up from the non-distressed median sales price of $280,000 last May and up from last month’s $267,000.  Total sold dollar volume across the Baltimore Metro region in May was more than $936 million, up 15.3% percent from last year.

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Despite healthy sales growth, rising inventories are helping to keep price growth firmly in check.  Inventories exceed the 5-year average but remain well below the 10-year average for May, and are at their sixth highest level since December 2011.  New listings are up 8.5% to 6,062, which is the highest May level since 2007.  Median days on market are at 32, increasing by 2 days over May 2014, but are down 16 days from April 2015 and remain below the 5-year and 10-year historical averages of 40 and 46 days.

There were 525 REO (foreclosure) and 115 short sales in May, for a total of 640 bank-mediated transactions or 20% of all closed sales, but the number of bank-mediated sales are down by 8% from last month.  Short sales are down by 28% compared to May 2014, while REO sales are up by 60% compared to last year.  The median sales price for foreclosures is $106,000 and for short sales is $160,000, while the median sales price for non-bank mediated transactions is $289,000.  Foreclosure activity continues to heavily impact the regional market, especially in Baltimore City, where there were 188 REO sales and 23 short sales in May, accounting for more than 29% of all homes sold in the city, although that percentage is down from 38% last month. In Baltimore County, distressed sales accounted for 20% of all sales.  With respect to inventories, across the Baltimore Metro area the percentage of bank-mediated inventory as a percentage of total inventory remains at 17%.

CLOSED SALES

Year-over-year sales remain strong, best May since 2006.  Closed sales increased by double-digits for the sixth straight month, with a year-over-year increase of 16.7% or 462 sales, and up 433 sales or 15.5% over April 2015.  There were a total of 3,229 sales, the highest May since 2006.  For the fourth straight month, all home types had sales increases, led by single-family detached which increased by 18.5% or 272 units, followed by townhomes which increased by 17.5%, or 167 units, and condos, which increased by 6.7%, or 23 units.  May sales are 22% more than the 5-year average and 19% more than the 10-year average.  Year to date, the number of sales across the region is up 25.5% compared to 2014, with 2,580 more units sold than at this point last year.  All jurisdictions have double-digit increases in the number of sales YTD, with Howard County the lowest at a 17.7% increase and Carroll County the highest at a 37.2% increase.

NEW CONTRACTS

New contracts rise for twelfth straight month, highest May in over a decade.  The number of new contracts increased 18.1% from May of 2014 to a total of 4,313, an increase of 661 and just slightly below last month’s 4,387, which was the highest single month in a decade.  New contracts have now risen year-over-year for twelve consecutive months.  For the eighth month in row, there have been double-digit increases in year-over-year pending sales growth.  This is also the eighth month in a row that all property segments had more pending contracts than the prior year.  Condos again led the way this month with a 23.6% increase, or 84 units.  The number of new contracts for single-family detached increased 18.9% or 390 units, while townhomes grew by 15.2%, or 187 units compared to May 2014.  New pending contracts exceed the 5-year and 10-year averages by 24% and 41%, respectively.  Across the region, new contracts are up 22.8% compared to January-May 2014.   

PRICES

Median sales prices flat year-over-year, up 8.7% month-over-month.  Median sales prices remained level at $250,000 compared to May 2014, although they increased by $20,000 or 8.7% over last month.  Market segment activity was mixed, with condos declining by 7.3% to $189,950, single-family detached declining 3.4% to $316,000 and townhomes increasing 6.4% to $202,200 compared to last year.  Month-over-month prices were up 5.3% for single-family detached, up 28% for townhomes and down 2.6% for condos.  Townhome prices are at a level last seen in summer of 2009.

The largest increase in median sales price in the Baltimore Metro area was in Baltimore City, which experienced a 9.2% increase to $142,000 coupled with a significant 22.5% increase in volume over the prior May, with 719 sales.  Baltimore County saw a 3.1% increase in median sales price to $221,500 on a 19.8% increase in sales to 873. Howard County continues to have the highest median sales price at $399,900, which is up a slight 0.2% from May 2014 on a 13.4% increase in the number of sales to 407.  Median sales prices in Anne Arundel County increased 1.5% to $320,000 on 712 closed sales, a 5% increase over the prior year.  The median sales prices in Carroll County rose 1.4% to $289,000 on sales volume of 203 units, an area best 29.3% increase over last year.  Harford County’s median sales price stayed flat at $250,000 on a 22.6% increase in volume to 315 sales.

INVENTORY

Active listings continue to increase, new listings at highest May level since 2007, days-on-market up slightly year-over-year.  This is the twentieth consecutive month that active listings have increased year-over-year, with 13,613 properties on the market at the end of May, an increase of 4.7% or 613 compared to last year.  Condos continue to have the highest percentage increase in the number of listings with a year-over-year increase of 9% or 105 units.  Townhomes increased by 6.1%, or 249 listings, and single-family detached grew by 3.3% or 259 listings.  Active inventory exceeds the 5-year average of 13,472, but is still below the 10-year average of 15,394.    

There was an 8.5% increase of 476 units for a new listings total of 6,062, which is the highest May level since 2007.  New listings for single-family detached rose by the largest percentage, at 10% or 323 units, followed by condos which increased by 9.6% or 48 units, while townhome listings grew by 5.7% or 105 units.  There have now been year-over-year increases in the number of new listings for 26 consecutive months, and the number of new listings comfortably exceeds the 5-year average of 4,990 and the 10-year average of 5,245.  New listings were down 2.3% or 142 compared to last month.

At 32 days, the median days-on-market (DOM) increased by 2 days over May 2014, but remains well below both the 5-year and 10-year averages of 40 and 46 days respectively, and dropped from 48 days last month.  Single-family detached have a median DOM of 35 days, which is down from 57 days last month but up from 33 days last year.  Condos have a median DOM of 37 compared to last month’s 42 days and last year’s 28 days.  Townhomes have a median DOM of 28 compared to 41 for last month and 28 days last year.  Carroll County has the highest number of days-on-market at 47 days, up from 25 days in May of 2014, while the lowest number of days-on-market is 16 days in Howard County, down from 18 days a year ago.

About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.

About RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI) is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.