Baltimore Metro contract activity reached highest November level since 2004

Sales and pending contracts both up about 10%; Median sales prices unchanged, inventory growth slips for third straight month

Rockville, MD – (December 10, 2015) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on November 2015 MRIS housing data.

OVERVIEW

The Baltimore Metro housing market showed strong increases in sales and pending contracts, with sales at the highest November level since 2009 and pending contracts at their best November level in over a decade.    Median sales prices were unchanged from last year, with single-family detached and townhomes increasing and condos declining.  Inventory growth has declined for the third consecutive month, although buoyed by the strong rise in new listings.

There were 2,373 closed sales in November, which is up 10.1% compared to last year, but down 20% from last month.  New contracts increased 9.2% from the prior year to 2,997 but are down 16.6% compared to last month.  With an overall median November sales price of $230,000, prices were unchanged from last year, but down $5,000 or 2.1% from last month.  Compared to last year, the median sales price for single-family detached rose 2.7% to $298,900 and townhome prices rose 1.5% to $167,500, while condo prices declined 1.3% to $190,000.  Month-over-month prices were down 0.3% for single-family detached, down 0.9% for townhomes and down 3.8% for condos.  Total sold dollar volume across the Baltimore Metro region in November was slightly more than $642 million, up 10.8% from last year.

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With 13,049 active listings, inventories declined 1% compared to last year and 6.5% compared to last month. While townhome listings increased by 3.1% to 4,470, the number of single-family detached listings decreased by 2.7% to 7,431, and condos decreased by 5.2% to 1,148.  The number of total new listings increased by 16.5% to 3,663, with all property types increasing about 16% compared to last year.  Median days-on-market (DOM) are at 48, which is six days less than last year and one day more than last month.

In November 2015, there were 446 REO (foreclosure) and 83 short sales across the Baltimore Metro Region for a total of 529 bank-mediated transactions or 22.3% of all closed sales.  Regionally, while the median sales price for a non-bank mediated sale is $265,000, the median sales price for foreclosures is $105,810, and the median sales price for short sales is $165,000.  This shows the continuing impact of the bank-mediated market on the overall median sales price.    

CLOSED SALES

Best November sales pace since 2009, all property types see growth.  There were 2,373 closed sales in November, making this the second highest November sales level since 2006, the 16^th consecutive month with an increase in year-over-year closed sales, and the 12^th consecutive month of double-digit year-over-year growth.  Overall sales were up 10.1% compared to last year, but were down 20% from last month.  Townhomes again showed the highest level of year-over-year growth, with a 16.4% increase to 865 sales.  Condo sales increased by 13.2% to 265, and single-family detached sales increased by 5.4% to 1,243 sales.  November sales comfortably exceed the 5-year average of 2,041 and the 10-year average of 2,043.  Across the entire metro area, the 32,750 sales in January through November are up 20% compared to last year.  All jurisdictions show increases in the number of sales for the month compared to last year and double-digit growth in year-to-date sales.

NEW PENDING SALES

Best level of November pending sales in over a decade, townhomes show highest rate of growth.  This was the highest November level of new contracts since 2004, with 2,997 new contracts during the month.  The number of new contracts increased 9.2% compared to last year.  New contracts have now risen year-over-year for 18 consecutive months.  New pending contracts comfortably exceed the 5-year average of 2,482 and the 10-year average of 2,117.  After bottoming in 2008, November new pending contracts have continually increased year-over-year and are now almost two and one-half times what they were in 2008.

The number of new contracts for townhomes increased 13.9% to 1,124, while single-family detached rose 8.2% to 1,575, and condos declined 1.7% to 298.  Compared to last month, all property types saw decreases, with pending sales of condos decreasing by 21.6%, single-family detached declining by 18.9%, and townhomes decreasing by 11.8%. 

PRICES

Median sales prices unchanged year-over-year, down slightly from last month, condo prices dip slightly.  The overall median sales price of $230,000 was unchanged compared to last year and down 2.1% or $5,000 compared to last month.  Compared to last year, single-family detached median prices increased 2.7% to $298,900 and townhomes rose 1.5% to $167,500, but condos declined 1.3% to $190,000.  Compared to last month, single-family detached prices were down 0.3%, townhome prices were down 0.9%, and condo prices decreased by 3.8%.  Overall median sales prices are just slightly below the 5-year average of $230,340 and also below the 10-year average of $238,655.  The regional year-to-date median sales price of $240,000 is equal to last year’s comparable price.

Across the region, prices were mixed but sales activity was universally up.  The median sales price in Howard County rose 2.4% to $392,500 on 250 sales, a 5.9% increase compared to last year.  The median sales price in Anne Arundel County slipped a negligible 0.5% to $298,600 on 541 transactions, which was a 12.5% increase over the number of sales last year.  Carroll County saw a 1.9% increase in median sales price to $269,900 along with a 9.5% increase in the number of sales to 150.  The median sales price in Harford County rose 6.7% to $239,900 on 251 closed sales, which was a robust increase of 29.4%.  In Baltimore County, median sales price rose 0.3% to $203,500 with an 8% increase in the number of sales to 659.  Baltimore City’s median sales price decreased 2.2% to $109,000 on 522 sales, which was a 4.8% increase over last year.  Baltimore City continues to show the largest year-to-date decline in median sales price, decreasing 7.6% from $119,000 in 2014 to $110,000 in 2015.

INVENTORY

Year-over-year active inventories decline for third month in a row, despite new listings at the highest November level since 2007.  There was a 1% decline in the number of properties on the market at the end of November to 13,049.  Inventory growth has declined for the past three months, seeming to indicate the end of a two-year growth cycle that began in October 2013 and reached a high point in September 2014.  Compared to last year, the number of townhome listings increased by 3.1% to 4,470, but the number of single-family detached listings dropped 2.7% to 7,431 and the number of condo listings declined 5.2% to 1,148.  Compared to last month, active inventory is down by 6.5%, with single-family detached down 7.7%, townhomes down 5.2%, and condos down 4.2%.  Active inventory exceeds the 5-year average of 12,528 but is still well below the 10-year average of 14,940.  Active listings at the end of November are generally down slightly across the region except in Baltimore City and Baltimore County, where active listings are up 3.9% and 1.3% respectively. 

With 3,663 new listings in November, a 16.5% increase over last year, this was the highest November level since 2007.  There have now been year-over-year increases in the number of new listings for 32 consecutive months, and the number of new listings easily exceeds both the 5-year average of 2,979 and the 10-year average of 3,204.  New listings for single-family detached properties rose by 16.7% to 1,913, followed by townhomes which increased by 16.4% to 1,379, and condos which increased 15.6% to 370.  The overall number of new listings is down by 23.7% compared to last month, with single-family detached down 24.7%, townhomes down 23% and condos down 20.6%.  The 53,220 new listings for the period January-November are up 8.8% compared to the same period last year.

At 48 days, the median days-on-market (DOM) decreased by six days compared to last year and increased by one day compared to last month.  Median days-on-market remains comfortably lower than the 5-year November average of 54 days and well below the 10-year average of 62 days.  Townhomes move most quickly, with a median DOM of 41, while condos have a median DOM of 42 and single-family detached have a median DOM of 55.  Properties in Howard County have the lowest median DOM of 40 (down from 44 days last year), while those in Carroll County are the highest at 62 days (down from 72 last year).

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About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.

About RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI) is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.