Baltimore area's June market reaches highest sales tally since 2006

Contracts high, days-on-market low; Prices down slightly

Rockville, MD – (July 10, 2015) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on June 2015 MRIS housing data.

OVERVIEW

The Baltimore Metro housing market saw large increases in sales, continued slowing growth in inventory levels, and a slight decline in year-over-year median sales prices.  Closed sales of 3,873 increased by 22.8% from June 2014 and by 19.9% compared to May 2015.  The number of new contracts increased 19.7% to 4,067 from the prior year, and are at their highest June level in a decade. The median June sales price of $259,900 was down $8,100 from June 2014, but up $9,900 compared to last month.  The $289,000 median sales price for “non-distressed” sales (those not involving a short sale or foreclosures) is down $6,000 from the non-distressed median sales price of $295,000 last June and but remains steady from last month.  Total sold dollar volume across the Baltimore Metro region in June was more than $1.16 billion, up 19.6% from last year and up 24.3% from last month.  At a local level, Baltimore City’s housing market appears to be experiencing impacts from the civil unrest of April as its 7.5% gain in June contract activity is well below the 19.7% gains experienced across the region.

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CLOSED SALES

Year-over-year sales continue to strengthen, best June since 2006.  Closed sales increased by double-digits for the seventh straight month, with a year-over-year increase of 22.8% or 719 sales, and up 644 sales or 19.9% over May 2015.  There were a total of 3,873 sales, the highest total since 2006.  For the fifth straight month, all home types had sales increases, led by condos which increased by 24.6% to 405 sales, followed by townhomes which increased by 24.3% to 1,279 sales, and single-family detached, which increased by 21.6% to 2,189 sales.  May sales are 28.8% more than the 5-year average and 26.5% more than the 10-year average.  Year to date, the number of sales across the region is up 22.8% compared to 2014, with 3,022 more units sold this year than last year.  All jurisdictions have double-digit increases in the number of sales both for the month of June and for the year-to-date aggregate.

Despite healthy sales growth, slight year-over-year increases in inventory and near record low days-on-market, the large percentage of distressed sales is preventing price growth.  A year ago, the number of bank-mediated sales was 472, or 15% of all closed sales.  By contrast in June 2015, there were 554 REO (foreclosure) and 121 short sales across the Baltimore Metro Region for a total of 675 distressed sales, or 17.4% of all closed sales.  The rise in REO sales is particularly acute, increasing by 64.4% compared to last year.   The median sales price for foreclosures was only $96,500 while the median sales price for non-distressed properties is $289,000.  

NEW CONTRACTS

New contracts continue to show double-digit growth, third best month since June 2005.  The number of new contracts increased 19.7% from June of 2014 to a total of 4,067, an increase of 668.  New contracts are down by 5.7% or 246 units compared to last month, and are 320 below April’s 4,387, which was the highest single month in a decade.  New contracts have now risen year-over-year for 13 consecutive months.  For the ninth month in row, all property segments had more pending contracts than the prior year and there were double-digit increases in year-over-year pending sales growth.  The number of new contracts for single-family detached increased 24.3% to 2,325, while condos rose by 15.1% to 426 and townhomes increased 13.5% to 1,316 compared to June 2014.  New pending contracts exceed the 5-year and 10-year averages by 25.4% and 41.1%, respectively.  Across the region, new contracts are up 20.7% year-to-date compared to 2014.

The city of Baltimore has seen a notable shift in contract gains relative to the Baltimore Metro region in the wake of the civil unrest in April.  While Baltimore City experienced year-over-year gains comparable to, and often exceeding, those of the Metro region in prior months, contract gains in May and June were well below the regional aggregate gains.  In May, Baltimore City saw a 5.2% increase versus 18.1% for the region and June’s 7.5% increase was well below the region’s 19.6% gain. 

Active listings up slightly, new listings 6.5% higher than last year, days-on-market down slightly year-over-year.  This is the twenty-first consecutive month that active listings have increased year-over-year, with 14,025 properties on the market at the end of June, an increase of 2.5% or 351 compared to last year and an increase of 3% or 412 compared to last month.  Townhomes increased by 6.8% to 4,524 listings, condos rose 6% to 1,267 listings, while single-family detached dropped less than 1% to 8,234 listings.  Compared to last month, single-family detached listings are up 226, townhomes are up 191, and condos listings are down 5.  Active inventory exceeds the 5-year average of 13,736, but is still below the 10-year average of 15,837.  Active listings at the end of June year-over-year are down in Anne Arundel and Harford Counties, but up in all other jurisdictions.  Across the Baltimore Metro area the percentage of bank-mediated inventory as a percentage of total inventory remains at 17%.

There was a 6.5% increase of 340 units for a new listings total of 5,493, which is the highest June level since 2007.  New listings for townhomes rose by the largest percentage, at 12.5% to 1,877, followed by condos which increased by 4.7% to 517, while single-family detached listings grew by 3.6% to 3,099.  There have now been year-over-year increases in the number of new listings for 27 consecutive months, and the number of new listings comfortably exceeds the 5-year average by 20.5% and the 10-year average by 10.3%.  New listings were down 9.4% or 569 compared to last month.  The number of new listings compared to January-June of 2014 is up by 2,636 or 9.7%.

At 28 days, the median days-on-market (DOM) decreased by two days over June 2014, but remains well below both the 5-year and 10-year averages of 35 and 41 days respectively, and dropped from 32 days last month.  Condos have a median DOM of 32 days, which is down from 37 days last month and also down from 36 days last year.  Single-family detached have a median DOM of 28 compared to last month’s 35 days and last year’s 30 days.  Townhomes have a median DOM of 27 compared to 28 for last month and 28 days last year.  Half of the Howard County homes sold in June were on market 18 days or fewer, marking the lowest median DOM in the region. Baltimore County homes also sold more quickly than the rest of the region, with a median DOM of 25 days.  Carroll and Harford had a median DOM of 32 days while Anne Arundel and Baltimore City both had a median DOM of 33.  While Baltimore City homes sold faster than the region in the six months leading into May, averaging eight fewer days over those months, its median DOM has been higher than the region in both May and June, by three days and five days, respectively.

PRICES

Median sales prices remain in narrow range, up 4% month-over-month.  Median sales prices dropped by 3% or $8,100 to $259,900 compared to June 2014, although they increased by $9,900 or 4% over last month.  As was the case last month, market segment activity was mixed, with condos declining by 3.9% to $199,500, single-family detached declining 3.1% to $325,000 and townhomes increasing 2.6% to $200,000 compared to last year.  Month-over-month prices were up 2.8% for single-family detached, down 1.1% for townhomes and up 5% for condos.  Prices slightly exceed the 5-year average of $255,230 but are just below the 10-year average of $261,305.

The only increase in median sales price in the Baltimore Metro area was in Howard County, which also has the highest median sales price of $420,000, an increase of $19,416 compared to last month’s median sales price.  Sales in Howard County increased by nearly 22% to 478 units.  The median sales price in Anne Arundel County dropped by $6,250 to $322,000 on 888 transactions, an increase of 134 sales compared to last year.  Carroll County saw a 1.6% decrease in median sales price to $300,000, on 23.8% more sales, or 281 transactions.  The median sales price in Harford County dropped $5,100 to $239,900 on 361 sales, an increase of 94.  Baltimore County saw a 4.2% decrease in median sales price to $226,000 on a 25.8% increase in sales to 1,045.  Baltimore City experienced a 4% decrease to $145,000 coupled with a 20.1% increase in volume over the prior June, with 820 sales.  

About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.

About RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI) is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.