Baltimore area sales and prices touch highest July levels in a decade as inventories remain low

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $277,000 at highest July level of the decade; Inventories at lowest July level of the decade, yet sales at July record

Rockville, MD – (August 10, 2018) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on July 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

Click here to view PDF version of this report

OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $277,000 was a 2.6% or $7,000 increase from last year and was easily the highest July median sales price of the last 10 years. 
• Sales volume of more than $1.2 billion was up 7.1% from last year.
• The 3,822 closed sales in July were up 6.5% compared to last year and were at the highest July level of the decade.
• New pending sales were down a slight 0.8% to 4,018.
• 5,162 new listings came on the market in July, up 1.9% from last year.
• There were 10,047 active listings at the end of July, which was an 8.2% decline compared to last year, the lowest July level of the decade, and the 35^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in July was 97.1%, well above last year’s 96.5% and at the highest July level of the decade.
• Median days-on-market of 20 days was down two days compared to last year and was the lowest July level of the last 10 years.

• The July overall regional median sales price of $277,000 is up 2.6% or $7,000 from last year and down a seasonal 2.8% or $8,000 from last month.  This was the highest July price of the decade and continues the trend of increasing year-over-year prices seen since December 2015.
• Both single-family detached and townhome prices were up 2.4%, to $352,000 and 215,000, respectively.  Condo prices were down 3.1% to $210,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $266,080 and the 10-year average of $257,446.
• Prices are 23.1% above the July 2011 low of $225,000.  Last year’s $270,000 had been the highest July price level of the last ten years.
• Howard County remains the most expensive area in the region, with a July median sales price of $420,000.  This was a 2.3% decrease compared to last year and was the only area in the region to show a decline, possibly related to the Ellicott City floods in May.
• Baltimore City is still the most affordable area, with a July median sales price of $159,450, up 2.0% from last year.
• Prices in Harford County rose the most, with an 8.1% increase to $264,900.  Anne Arundel (+4.8% to $350,000), Carroll County (+3.1% to $330,000) and Baltimore County (+1.7% to $246,000) also saw median sales price increases (along with Baltimore City). 
• For the year to date, regional median sales prices are up 2.7% to $267,000.

• The 3,822 closed sales in July were up 6.5% compared to last year but down 9.6% from last month.  This was the highest level of July sales of the decade.
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 10.8% to 411.  Townhome sales were up 8.0% to 1,323 and single-family detached sales were up 4.8% to 2,088. 
• July sales remain well above the 5-year average of 3,508 and the 10-year average of 2,940.
• July sales were nearly double the 2011 low of 1,935.  The highest level of closed July sales prior to this month was in July 2015, where there were 3,623 closed sales.
• Only Howard County (-10.9% to 426) saw a decrease in closed sales, again possibly related to the Ellicott City floods.  All other areas saw increases in closed sales:  Anne Arundel County (+13.4% to 915), Harford County (+12.8% to 389), Baltimore City (+9.7% to 834), Carroll County (+5.1% to 249) and Baltimore County (+4.9% to 1,009). 
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region of 23,540 are down 1.4%.

• There were 4,018 new pending sales in July, down a slight 0.8% compared to last year and down 7.2% compared to last month. 
• Pending sales of townhomes rose 0.1% to 1,426, while pending sales of single-family detached homes declined 0.1% to 2,152, and condo pending sales declined 6.4% to 440.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,880 and the 10-year average of 3,206.
• The number of new pending contracts in July was more than double the 10-year market low of 1,934 seen in July 2010.  Last year’s 4,050 is the highest July level of the past decade.
• Only Carroll County (+8.9% to 256) and Anne Arundel County (+8.5% to 969) saw increases in pending contracts.  Baltimore County (-2.9% to 1,096), Baltimore City (-3.7% to 864), Howard County (-6.0% to 451), and Harford County (-8.2% to 382) all saw declines in pending contracts.

• There were 5,162 new listings in July, up 1.9% from last year and down 8.7% from last month.  
• New townhome listings increased 4.0% to 1,930 and single-family detached listings increased 1.8% to 2,734. New condo listings decreased 5.3% to 498.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 5,076 and the 10-year average of 4,587.
• The number of new July listings was up 49.5% compared to the 2012 market low of 3,452.  The 5,188 new listings in July 2015 is the highest level of the decade.
• New listings increased in Anne Arundel County (+7.5% to 1,173), in Harford County (+4.6% to 526), in Carroll County (+1.3% to 311) and in Baltimore City (+0.3% to 1,224).  New listings declined in Baltimore County (-0.9% to 1,333) and in Howard County (-1.0% to 595).
• For the year to date, new listings across the region are down 0.4% to 36,219.

• Active inventories of 10,047 were down 8.2% compared to last year and down 0.9% from last month.   Year-over-year inventory levels have declined for 35 consecutive months.
• Compared to last year, condo inventories were down 21.3% to 816, single-family detached inventories were down 7.7% to 5,739, and townhome inventories were down 5.3% to 3,491.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 12,337 and the 10-yr average of 13,839.
• July inventories are 46.4% below the peak level of 18,749 seen in 2010.  Last year’s 10,946 had been the lowest July inventory level of the decade until this month.
• All jurisdictions showed declines in inventory levels during July, with the smallest percentage decline in Baltimore City (-2.7% to 2,926) and the largest percentage decline in Harford (-18.5% to 847).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for July was 97.1%, up from last year’s 96.5%.  This month’s SP to OLP ratio was down slightly from last month’s 97.4%, but it was still easily the highest July level of the decade.
• Townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.2%, while single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.1% and condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.7%.
• This July’s SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 95.8% and the 10-year average of 93.7%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest July average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 88.6%, and the previous high was last July’s 96.5%.
• The highest SP to OLP ratio is in Howard County, where it is 98.7%, up from last year’s 97.7%.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Baltimore City, where it is 95.5%, up from last year’s 94.3%, and the largest year-over-year percentage increase in the region.
• All jurisdictions saw increases in SP to OLP ratios this month.
• For the year to date, the SP to OLP ratio of 97.4% is up from last year’s 96.7%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in July in the Baltimore Metro region was 20 days, down two days from last year and at the lowest level of the decade.  Median DOM did increase from 15 days last month.
• Condos have a median DOM of 17, while townhomes have a median DOM of 19 and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 21.
• July’s median DOM is less than the 5-year average of 27 days and the 10-year average of 38 days.
• The median DOM of 20 days is 68.3% of the peak DOM of 63 days in July 2011.  Prior to this year, the lowest July median DOM had been last year’s 22 days.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 28 days, the same as last year.
• Howard County had the lowest median DOM in the region of 12 days, down from 16 last year.
• All jurisdictions saw declines in median days-on-market except in Baltimore City and Carroll County, where they remained flat at 28 and 20 days, respectively.
• For the year-to-date across the region, median DOM is 22 days, down significantly from 28 days last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.