Baltimore area prices reach highest February mark since 2009 as inventories reach ten-year low

Median sales price of $230,000 is at best February level since 2009; Sales flat, but pending sales are at decade high for February

Rockville, MD – (March 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on February 2017 MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $230,000 was up 2.2% or $5,000 from last year, and is at the highest February level since 2009, where it was $239,950. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was up 3.8% from last year to $589 million.
• February closed sales of 2,211 were down 1.6% compared to last year’s decade high of 2,248.
• The 3,538 new pending contracts set a February decade high, up 0.4% compared to last year and up 10.7% from last month.
• The 4,045 new listings in February were up 1.4% compared to last year and were at the highest February level since 2008. 
• The number of active listings declined by 15.4% to 8,930, the 18^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels, and is the lowest inventory level in over 10 years.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in February was 94.3%, the highest February level in a decade, exceeding the previous high set in February 2014 of 93.0%.
• The median days-on-market was 56 days, down from 66 days last year, and at the lowest level in a decade.

• The overall regional median sales price for February 2017 of $230,000 is up $5,000 or 2.2% from last year, but down 2.1% or $4,950 from last month.  This is the 12^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 
• All property types showed increases in prices compared to last February, with condo prices up 5.7% to $194,500, single-family detached prices up 3.7% to $282,449, and townhome prices up 0.5% to $161,750.
• Prices are slightly above the 5-year average of $223,600 and the 10-year average of $226,030.
• February prices are 12.0% above the 2011 low of $205,350, and 11.5% below the peak of $260,000 seen in 2008.
• Baltimore City saw the highest median price percentage increase in the region with February prices up 18.2% to $98,050, but it still remains the most affordable area in the region.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a February median sales price of $377,450, which is a 7.9% increase compared to last year.

• There were 2,211 sales in February, down 1.6% from last year, but up 0.7% from last month.
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 11.1% to 230, townhome sales were up 2.6% to 858, but single-family detached sales were down 6.7% to 1,123. 
• February sales were well above both the 5-year average of 1,862 and the 10-year average of 1,624.
• Sales were 87.7% higher than the 2009 low of 1,178, but were down from last year’s record of 2,248 by 1.6%.
• Year-over-year sales levels were up in Baltimore City (+7.2%) and Harford County (+5.7%), but were down in Anne Arundel (-3.0%), Baltimore County (-3.2%), Carroll County (-13.0%) and Howard County (-14.2%).

• February 2017 pending sales of 3,538 were up 0.4% compared to last year, and were up 10.7% compared to last month.   
• Only single-family detached properties saw an increase in year-over-year pending sales, up 5.2% to 1,916.  Townhomes were down 3.1% to 1,285 and condos were down 10.4% to 336.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,004 and the 10-year average of 2,491.
• The number of new pending contracts in February was 128.1% more than the 10-year market low of 1,551 seen in 2009 and was 0.4% over the prior decade high of 3,523 set last year.
• Regionally, the largest increase in new pending sales was in Baltimore City (+3.9%).  Baltimore County (+3.8%) and Harford County (+3.1%) also saw increases, while Howard County (-2.6%), Anne Arundel County (-3.0%), and Carroll County (-14.1%) saw decreases.

• There were 4,045 new listings added in February in the Baltimore Metro area, which was a 1.4% increase over last year and a 11.8% increase over last month.
• Single-family detached new listings were up 5.7% to 2,171, but townhomes were down 1.5% to 1,480 and condos were down 9.2% to 393.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 3,589 and the 10-year average of 3,521.
• The number of new listings in February was up 38.9% compared to the market low of 2,912 in 2010, and was 7.6% below the 2008 high of 4,378.
• Baltimore County saw the largest percentage increase in the number of new listings (+9.5%) to 1,054, while Carroll County saw the largest decrease (-17.4%) to 213.

• Active inventories dropped by 15.4% to 8,930 compared to last year and were down 1.8% compared to last month. Overall inventory levels have declined for 18 consecutive months and are at the lowest monthly level of the last 10 years. 
• All property types saw declines in year-over-year inventory levels, with condos down 18.9% to 861, single-family detached down 15.5% to 4,982 and townhomes down 14.1% to 3,087.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 10,040 and the 10-yr average of 12,749.
• February inventories are 49.6% below the decade high of 17,709 seen in February of 2008, and are 5.1% below the previous February low of 9,411 seen in 2013.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 24.9% in Carroll County to 540 active listings, and the smallest decline in Baltimore City of 12.3% to 2,602 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for February was 94.3%, the same as last month but up significantly from last year’s 92.0%.  This was the highest February level in a decade.
• Condos have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 94.5%.  Single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 94.4% while townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 94.1%.
• The February SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 92.6% and the 10-year average of 90.7%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest February average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, when it was 86.5%, and the previous high was in 2014 when it was 93.0%.
• Homes in Anne Arundel County sold at 95.3% of their original listing price in February, the highest in the region, and above last year’s 94.1%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price remains in Baltimore City, where it was 92.0%, up significantly from last year’s 87.4%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in February in the Baltimore Metro region was 56 days, down 10 days from last year but up 10 days from last month.
• In February, condos had a median DOM of 69, while single-family detached homes had a median DOM of 64 and townhomes had a median DOM of 48.
• February’s median DOM of 56 days is below both the 5-year average of 63 days and the 10-year average of 79 days.
• February’s median DOM was 51 days less than the peak DOM of 107 days in February 2009 and was the lowest February level in a decade.  The previous lowest median DOM was in 2014 at 61.
• Only Howard County saw an increase in the median DOM, rose from 64 days to 72.  All other jurisdictions in the region saw declines in the February median DOM, with Baltimore City seeing the largest drop, going from 72 days to 49 days, which was also the lowest in the region.
• Carroll County continues to have the highest median DOM of 77 days, down from 79 days last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com

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