Baltimore area prices jump 8% to highest October level since 2007

Sales at highest October level in a decade; Inventories decline for 14^th straight month

Rockville, MD – (November 10, 2016) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on October MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $253,000 was up 7.7% or $18,000 from last year, and at the highest October level since 2007. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was almost $910 million, up 10.2% from last year.
• October closed sales of 3,060 were up 3.2% compared to last year but down 4.5% compared to last month.  This was the highest level of October sales recorded since 2005.
• There were 3,426 new pending contracts recorded in October, down 4.7% compared to last year.
• The number of new listings dropped 9.8% to 4,327 compared to last year.
• The number of active listings declined by 14.3% to 11,958, marking 14 months of declining inventory levels.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in October was 94.8%, the highest October level in a decade.
• The median days-on-market was 40 days, down from 47 days last year.

• The overall regional median sales price for October 2016 of $253,000 is up 7.7% or $18,000 from last year, and down only 0.3% or $670 from last month.
• Year-over-year condo prices were up 8.9% to $215,000, townhome prices were up 6.5% to $180,000 and single-family detached prices were up 5.0% to $315,000,000.
• Prices are 5.8% above the 5-year average of $239,030 and 5.3% above the 10-year average of $240,365.
• October prices are 15.5% above the 2011 bottom of $219,000, and 5.6% below the peak of $268,000 seen in 2007.
• With a year-over-year median sales price appreciation of 18.1%, Baltimore City saw the highest percentage increase in the region, but remains the most affordable locale with a median sales price of $124,000.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with an October median sales price of $380,000, a 1.8% decrease compared to last year. 
• The year-to-date median price of $250,000 is up 4.2% compared to the first ten months of 2015.

• October sales of 3,060 were up 3.2% compared to last year, but down 4.5% compared to last month. This is the highest level of October sales since 2006.
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 18.7% to 343, single-family detached sales were up 5.8% to 1,717, while townhome sales were down 5.0% to 1,000. 
• Sales were 19.3% above the 5-year average and 37.7% above the 10-year October average.
• Sales were 89.9% higher than the 2011 low of 1,611.
• All jurisdictions saw growth in the number of closed sales except for Harford County, where sales declined by 20.6% to 273.  Howard County saw the largest increase of 18.2% to 377.
• Cumulative sales through October are up 9.9% versus 2015 to 33,225.

• October 2016 pending sales declined 4.7% compared to last year to 3,426, and were down 3.7% compared to last month.    
• All property types saw YoY decreases in the number of contracts.  Single-family detached decreased 7.2% to 1,801, townhomes dipped 2.0% to 1,249, and condos decreased 1.3% to 375.
• Pending contracts are 11.2% above the 5-year average and 35.4% above the 10-year average.
• The number of new pending contracts in October was 136.9% more than the 10-year market low of 1,446 seen in 2008.
• Only Howard County saw an increase in new contracts compared to last year, rising 8.7% to 400.   Harford County saw the largest decline at -17.6% to 313.

• The 4,327 new listings added in October in the Baltimore Metro area represented a 9.8% decrease over last year and a 9.5% decrease compared to last month. 
• All property types saw decreases in the number of new listings, with townhomes declining 13.4% to 1,552.  The number of new condo listings declined by 10.1% to 419 and the number of single-family detached dropped 7.3% to 2,355.
• New listings are above both the 5-year and 10-year averages of 4,181 and 4,098, respectively.
• The number of new listings in October was up 35.1% compared to the market low of 3,202 in 2012, and was 12.7% below the 2007 high of 4,957.
• All jurisdictions saw declines in the number of new listings, with the largest in Harford (-15.8%) and the smallest in Anne Arundel (-3.2%).
• For January-October, new listings are up 1.3% to 50,181.

• Active inventories dropped by 14.3% to 11,958 compared to last year and were down 4.0% compared to last month.
• Inventory levels for all property types were down for the tenth consecutive month, with single-family detached down 15% to 6,837, townhomes down 14.6% to 4,029, and condos down 8.8% to 1,092.
• Inventories are 5.9% below the 5-yr average and a significant 21.9% below the 10-yr average.
• October inventories are 39.6% below the decade high of 19,784 seen in October of 2007, and are only 3.7% above the October 2012 trough of 11,531.
• All jurisdictions in the region continue to show declines in active inventories, with the largest percentage decline of 19.4% in Carroll County to 775 active listings, and the smallest decline in Baltimore City of 9.9% to 3,261 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for October was 94.8%, up from last year’s 93.0% but down just slightly from last month’s 94.9%.  This was the highest October level in a decade.
• The October average SP to OLP ratio of 94.8% is above the 5 and 10-year averages of 93.4% and 92.2%, respectively.
• Over the last decade, the lowest October average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, where it was 89.1%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 96.8% of their original listing price in October, the highest in the region, and above last year’s 95.2%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 93.0%, up significantly from last year’s 88.9%. 
• All jurisdictions showed increases in SP to OLP compared to last year and all jurisdictions show increases in SP to OLP compared to the January-October period of last year.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in October in the Baltimore Metro region was 40 days, down seven days from last year but up four days from last month.
• This month, both townhomes and condos had a median DOM of 35 while single-family detached homes had a median DOM of 46.
• October’s median DOM of 40 is below both the 5-year average of 45 days and the 10-year average of 59 days.
• This October’s median DOM was 45 days less than the peak DOM of 85 days in October 2008 and one day more than the low of 39 seen in October 2013.
• Homes in Howard County sell fastest, with a median DOM of 33, down from 45 days last year.
• Harford County had the highest median DOM of 47 days, down from 58 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, all jurisdictions are seeing decreases in the median DOM.  For the overall region, the YTD median DOM is 36 days compared to 42 days last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com

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