Baltimore area November home sales climb significantly versus 2019 for third consecutive month

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $274,950 at November high; Sales up by double-digits for third month in a row; Inventories at November low

Rockville, MD – (December 11, 2019) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November 2019 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price established a new November record level at $274,950, rising 3.9% over last year.  This November marks nearly 4 years of year-over-year price appreciation.
• Sales volume of almost $908 million was up 17.5% from last year.
• Closed sales were up by double-digits for the third month in a row, rising 15.8% to 2,896.
• New pending sales were also up, rising 5.3% to 3,100.
• New listings were down 4.8% to 3,468.
• As a result, active listings declined by 10.0% compared to last year, to just 9,029, the lowest November level of the decade
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale was 97.1%, up significantly from last November’s 95.8%.
• At 30 days, median days-on-market are down just slightly from last year’s 31 and the same as last month.

• November’s overall regional median sales price of $274,950 was easily the highest November price of the decade.  Prices were up 3.9% or $10,250 from last year but were down 1.8% or $5,050 from last month.
• Townhomes drove the gain in prices, rising 8.0% to $212,850.  Condo prices were down 1.8% to $210,000, and single-family detached prices were down 1.4% to $340,000.
• Prices are well above the 5-year average of $252,730 and the 10-year average of $241,335.
• Prices are 23.7% above the November 2011 low of $222,250.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a November median sales price of $404,950, but prices there slipped 3.6% from last year (the only jurisdiction in the area to show a decline).
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable, with a November median sales price of $160,000, up 19.9% from last year and posted the largest level of price appreciation across the metro.
• Prices in Anne Arundel remained flat at $345,000.  Prices went up in the other areas of the metro, with the second largest percentage gain after Baltimore City in Harford County (+10.0% to $276,000), followed by Carroll County (+3.2% to $324,950) and Baltimore County (+1.7% to $239,000).
• For the year-to-date, regional prices are up 6.3% to $284,900.

• Compared to last year, closed sales were up a significant 15.8% to 2,896, the third month in a row of double-digit increases after nearly a year of declines.  Sales were down a seasonal 8.8% from last month.
• Closed sales of townhomes were up 21.5% to 1,107, while single-family closed sales rose by 13.0% to 1,501 and condo sales were up 10.3% to 288.
• November sales are above both the 5-year average of 2,727 and the 10-year average of 2,309.
• November sales were 78.5% above the trough of 1,622 seen in November 2010 and are 3.6% below the peak level of 3,003 seen in November 2017.
• Sales were up almost everywhere across the region, with the largest percentage gain in Baltimore City (+29.5% to 711), followed by Carroll County (+21.3% to 171), Baltimore County (+16.2% to 781), Anne Arundel County (+13.5% to 655) and Howard County (+5.8% to 292).  Sales in Harford County were flat at 286.
• For the year-to-date, closed sales across the region are up 2.9% to 37,486.

• New pending sales of 3,100 were up 5.3% compared to last year and were down a seasonal 17.9% from last month.
• Pending sales of condos were up 16.5% to 311, townhomes were up 4.8% to 1,217 and single-family detached pending sales were up 3.9% to 1,572.
• Pending contracts are just below the 5-year average of 3,118 but are more than the 10-year average of 2,682. They are 6.5% below the peak level of 3,316 seen in November 2016.
• The number of new pending contracts in November was 70.9% more than the 10-year market low of 1,814 seen in November 2010.
• Across the region, new pending sales were up everywhere, with the largest percentage gain in Carroll County (+15.7% to 184) and the smallest gain in Baltimore City (+1.0% to 775).   

• New listings were down 4.8% compared to last year to 3,468, making this the fifth month of the last six where Y-o-Y new listings declined.  They were down a seasonal 27.2% over last month.
• New townhome listings were down 2.9% to 1,445, new single-family detached listings were down 4.1% to 1,743 and new condo listings were down 15.9% to 280.
• New listings are below the 5-year average of 3,576 but above the 10-year average of 3,227.
• The number of new November listings exceeded the 2011 market low of 2,500 by 38.7% and is 5.3% below the November 2015 high of 3,663.
• New listing activity across the region was mostly down, with only Howard County (+2.4% to 337) recording an increase in new listings.  The smallest percentage decrease in new listings was in Anne Arundel County (-3.7% to 722) and the largest was in Carroll County (-16.5% to 172).
• For the year-to-date, new listings are up a slight 0.6% to 55,052.

• Active inventories of 9,029 were down 10.0% compared to last year and were down 8.7% compared to last month.  This is, by far, the lowest November level of the decade and is the fifth month in a row that year-over-year inventories have declined and are declining more rapidly.
• Compared to last year, condo inventories were down 8.3% to 756, townhome inventories were down 9.1% to 3,329 and single-family detached active listings were down 10.5% to 4,944.
• Inventories remain well below both the 5-yr average of 10,546 and the 10-yr average of 11,957.
• November inventories are slightly more than half the peak level of 17,251 seen in 2010.  November 2017’s 9,712 had been the lowest November inventory level until this month.
• Inventory levels are down everywhere across the region.  Baltimore City had the smallest percentage decline in inventory levels (-0.6% to 3,050) while Anne Arundel (-19.4% to 1,857) had the largest.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 97.1%, up significantly from last year’s 95.8% but down just slightly from last month’s 97.2%. This was the highest November level of the past 10 years.
• Townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 98.3%, condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.2%, and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.2%.
• This November’s SP to OLP ratio remains well above both the 5-year average of 95.0% and the 10-year average of 93.2%.
• Over the last ten years, the lowest November average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2010 when it was 88.5%. 
• Baltimore City had the highest SP to OLP ratio at 98.2%, up from last year’s 93.6%.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Baltimore County, where it is 96.0%, the same as last year.
• All jurisdictions except Baltimore County saw increases in SP to OLP ratios in November.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 97.3%, down from 97.7% for the same period last year.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in November was 30 days, down just one day from last November and the same as last month.
• Condos have a median DOM of 19, while townhomes have a median DOM of 29, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 34.
• November’s median DOM was eight days below the 5-year average of 38 days and 18 days below the 10-year average of 48 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 20 is the lowest November level in a decade (the next lowest was 31 days last year).  The highest November median DOM of the last 10 years was 77 days in 2011.
• The highest median DOM in the region in November was in Baltimore City where it was 38 days, up from 34 days last year. 
• Howard County has the lowest median DOM of 24 days, down from 28 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 26 days, the same as it was at this point last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 95,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.