Baltimore area median sales price hits all-time high in May

The region's median sales price reaches $293,000; Sales decline for ninth straight month; Inventories improve slightly

Rockville, MD – (June 11, 2019) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on May 2019 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $293,000 set a new overall record for the decade, rising 6.5% compared to last year and breaking the previous record of $285,000 set in June 2018.
• Sales volume of nearly $1.3 billion was up 5.1% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,787 were down 1.6% compared to last year and year-over-year closed sales have now decreased for nine consecutive months. 
• New pending sales of 4,891 were up 5.6% from last May, the third consecutive month of gains.
• New listings rose by 2.9% to 6,476, also the third consecutive month of year-over-year increases.
• There were 10,087 active listings at the end of May, up 2.7% from last year.  This is the eighth consecutive month of increases in year-over-year inventories but is still the second lowest level of May inventories of the past decade.
• The May average percentage of original list price received at sale was 97.6%, the highest monthly level of the decade.

• May’s overall regional median sales price of $293,000 was easily the highest monthly price of the decade.  Prices were up 6.5% or $18,000 from last year and were also up 6.5% from last month.
• Townhome prices were up 4.6% to $230,100, single-family detached home prices were up 4.3% to $364,900, and condo prices were up 3.3% to $222,000.
• Prices remain well above the 5-year average of $270,725 and the 10-year average of $254,708.
• Prices are 32.0% above the May 2011 low of $221,950.
• Howard County continues to have the highest prices in the region, with a May median sales price of $420,000, which is the same as last year.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area, with a May median sales price of $175,000, up 5.3% from last year.
• Prices went up or remained level in all other jurisdictions in the region.  Carroll County (+5.6% to $330,000), Anne Arundel (+5.2% to $359,900) and Baltimore County (+5.0% to $250,000) all saw increases, and Harford County was flat at $270,000.
• For the year-to-date, regional prices are up 3.5% to $269,000.

• Closed sales of 3,787 were down 1.6% compared to last year, making this the ninth consecutive month of declining year-over-year closed sales, although the rate of decline has slowed over the last several months.  Sales were up 16.0% from last month.
• Single-family detached sales were up 3.7% to 2,082, while condo sales were down 3.2% to 389, and townhome sales were down 8.8% to 1,314. 
• May sales are above both the 5-year average of 3,709 and the 10-year average of 3,113.
• May sales were 81.7% more than the trough of 2,084 seen in May 2011, but they were 4.5% below the 2017 peak of 3,964.
• Sales activity across the region was mixed, with Howard County seeing the largest percentage gain (+15.2% to 492), followed by Carroll County (+6.8% to 251), Baltimore County (+3.6% to 1,029) and Anne Arundel County (+0.7% to 932).  Harford County (-6.8% to 385) and Baltimore City (-18.5% to 698) saw declines.
• For the year-to-date, sales are down 1.3% to 14,982.

• There were 4,891 new pending sales at the end of May, up 5.6% compared to last year.  This was the third consecutive month of increases and the highest monthly level of the decade.  New pending sales were up 0.5% compared to last month.
• Pending sales of townhomes were up 11.3% to 1,828 and single-family detached homes pending sales were up 3.3% to 2,626.  Condo pending sales were down 2.7% to 435.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 4,643 and the 10-year average of 3,812.
• The number of new pending contracts in May was 175.2% more than the 10-year market low of 1,777 seen in May 2010.
• Across the region, all areas saw gains in new pending sales, with the largest percentage gain in Anne Arundel County (+11.2% to 1,123) and the smallest in Howard County (+0.5% to 555).

• May’s 6,476 new listings increased 2.9% over last year and 3.4% over last month and are at the highest monthly level of the decade.    
• New townhome listings increased 9.2% to 2,343 and new single-family detached listings were up 1.6% to 3,635.  New condo listings decreased 13.0% to 496.
• New listings exceed the 5-year average of 6,107 and the 10-year average of 5,362.
• The number of new May listings exceeded the 2012 market low of 3,997 by 62.0%.
• New listing activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest percentage gains of 5.7% in Harford County (to 646) and in Howard County (812), followed by Anne Arundel County (+4.1% to 1,459), Baltimore City (+3.2% to 1,503) and Baltimore County (+0.1% to 1,642).  New listings just barely declined in Carroll County (-0.7% to 414).
• For the year-to-date, new listings are up 2.9% to 26,065.

• There were 10,087 active listings at the end of May, up 2.7% from last year and up 8.8% from last month. 
• Year-over-year single-family detached inventories were up 5.4% to 5,861 and townhome inventories were up 1.3% to 3,456 but condo inventories were down 9.4% to 765.
• Inventories remain well below both the 5-yr average of 11,242 and the 10-yr average of 12,766.
• May inventories are 43.0% below the peak level of 17,706 seen in 2010.
• Inventory levels rose everywhere except in Carroll County, where they declined by 2.4% to 578. Howard County saw the largest percentage gain in active inventories (+5.9% to 934), followed by Baltimore City (+3.0% to 3,102), Harford County (+2.9% to 808), Baltimore County (+2.8% to 2,284) and Anne Arundel County (+2.2% to 2,381).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for May was 97.6%, up just slightly from last year’s 97.5% and also up from last month’s 96.5%.  This is the highest monthly SP to OLP ratio of the decade. 
• Townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.8%, while single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.7% and condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.9%.
• This May’s SP to OLP ratio remains well above both the 5-year average of 96.5% and the 10-year average of 94.4%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest May average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 88.5%.
• Howard County had the highest SP to OLP ratio in the region at 98.8%, up from last year’s 98.7%.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Baltimore City, where it is 96.1%, up from last year’s 95.8%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is at 96.6%, down from 97.5% for the same period last year. 

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.