Baltimore area listings continue moving quickly in September as inventories remain scarce

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $253,000 is near September record; Active inventories decline by 11.4% to lowest September level of the decade; median days on market less than 30

Rockville, MD – (October 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on September 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $253,000 was down 0.3% or $670 from last year but down 4.5% or $12,000 compared to last month.
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was over $917 million, up 0.2% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,127 were down 2.4% compared to last year, and down 17.8% from last month.
• New contract activity of 3,462 was down 2.6% from last year and down 9.7% from last month.
• There were 4,778 new listings, one less than last September, and up 0.6% from last month.
• Active listings declined by 11.4% to 11,025, the 25^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest September levels in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in September was 95.5%, up from last year’s 94.9% but down from last month’s 95.9%.  This is the highest September level of the last ten years.
• The median days-on-market was 29 days, down from 36 days last year. 

• The September overall regional median sales price of $253,000 is down a slight 0.3% or $670 from last year, but is down 4.5% or $12,000 from last month.  This is the first time in 23 consecutive months that year-over-year prices have dropped.
• Compared to last year, condo prices were up 3.4% to $214,000 and single-family detached prices were up 0.6% to $317,000.  Townhome prices were down 0.5% to $194,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $246,274 and the 10-year average of $241,767.
• September prices are 11.7% above the 2011 low of $226,600 and are only 0.7% below the September 2008 peak of $254,700.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a September median sales price of $404,990, a 5.2% increase compared to last year.  Howard County also saw the highest level of price appreciation in the region.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, with a September median sales price of $127,000, a 3.3% increase compared to last year.
• Harford County saw the largest percentage decline in prices, down 3.9% to $230,500.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median sales price has increased 4.0% to $259,900.

• There were 3,127 closed sales in September, down 2.4% compared to last year and down 17.8% compared to last month.  
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 15.9% to 379, while townhome sales were up 0.8% to 1,133.  Single-family detached sales were down 7.8% to 1,615. 
• September sales were well above the 5-year average of 2,843 and the 10-year average of 2,429.
• September sales were 69.2% above the 2010 low of 1,848.
• Baltimore City saw the largest percentage increase in closed sales (+9.4% to 719), while Harford County saw the highest percentage decline in number of sales (-11.6% to 297).
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region are up 3.5% to 31,056.

• There were 3,462 new pending sales in September, down 2.6% compared to last year and down 9.7% compared to last month. 
• The number of new pending townhome sales increased 5.0% to 1,286.  New pending sales of single-family detached homes decreased 6.2% to 1,814 and new pending condo sales dropped 8.8% to 362.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,195 and the 10-year average of 2,638.
• The number of new pending contracts in September was nearly double the 10-year market lows seen in September 2008 and 2010.
• New pending sales were mixed across the region. Carroll County saw the largest increase in new pending sales, up 13.3% to 213, and Howard County saw the largest decrease, down 18.9% to 331.

• There were 4,778 new listings added in September, which was one less than last year.  New listings were down 0.6% compared to last month.  
• New townhome listings rose 3.7% to 1,763, while new single-family detached listings decreased 1.5% to 2,544 and new condo listings declined 5.0% to 471. 
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 4,628 and the 10-year average of 4,243.
• The number of new listings in September was up 47.8% compared to the 2012 market low of 3,233, and was 3.5% below the September high of 4,949 seen in 2015.
• Across the region, the largest percentage increase in new listings was in Baltimore City, where they increased 7.2% to 1,239.  The largest percentage decrease in the number of new listings was in Howard County, where they declined 14.8% to 474.
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the region are up a slight 0.2% to 45,938.

• Active inventories of 11,025 dropped by 11.4% compared to last year, but were up 2.2% from last month.   Overall inventory levels have declined for 25 consecutive months and are at the lowest September level in a decade. 
• Single-family detached and condo inventories were both down 12.6% to 6,200 and 1,017, respectively, and townhomes were down 9.2% to 3,807.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 12,779 and the 10-yr average of 14,816.
• September inventories are 45.0% below the decade high of 20,047 seen in September of 2008, and are 5.0% below the previous September 2013 low of 11,609.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed significant declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 24.0% in Carroll County to 628 active listings, and the smallest percentage decline of 5.1% in Baltimore City to 3,151 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for September was 95.5%, up from last year’s 94.9%, but down from last month’s 95.9%.  This was the highest September level in a decade.
• Single-family detached homes have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 95.8%.  Townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.2% and condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.1%.
• The September SP to OLP ratio is above both the 5-year average of 94.4% and the 10-year average of 92.6%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest September average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, where it was 88.5%, and the previous high was last September where it was 94.9%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 97.0% of their original listing price in September, which continues to be the highest in the region.  It was above last year’s 96.8%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price remains in Baltimore City, where it was 92.5%, up from last year’s 92.3%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 96.5%, up from last year’s 94.8%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in September in the Baltimore Metro region was 29 days, down seven days from last year but up three days from last month. This is the lowest September DOM of the last decade.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 25, condos have a median DOM of 31, and single-family detached have a median DOM of 33.
• September’s median DOM of 29 days is well below both the 5-year average of 38 days and the 10-year average of 52 days.
• September’s median DOM of 29 was 52 days less than the peak DOM of 81 days in September 2008 and was six days less than the previous low of 35 days in September 2013.
• Carroll County had the highest median DOM of 33 days, down from 42 days last year.
• Anne Arundel and Howard County have the lowest median DOM in the region of 26 days.
• For the year-to-date, the regional median DOM is 28 days, down from 35 days for the same period last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.