Baltimore area inventory shortage drives prices up, DOM levels down

Baltimore Metro median sales price up 5.1% to $255,500, best April since 2008; Closed sales inch up 2.0%, pending sales down 8% compared to last year; Active inventories and days-on-market both at ten-year April lows

Rockville, MD – (May 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on April 2017 MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $255,500 was up 5.1% from last year and up 4.3% compared to last month. This is the highest April level since 2008. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was up 8.9% from last year to $971.3 million.
• Closed sales of 3,264 were up 2.0% compared to last year and set an April high for the decade.
• The 4,464 new pending contracts recorded in April were 8.0% below last year’s April record of 4,853.
• There were 5,787 new listings in April, down 7.9% from last year.
• The number of active listings declined by 14.6% to 10,186, the 20^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest April levels in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in April was 96.2%, the highest monthly level since April 2007.
• The median days-on-market was 26 days, down from 41 days last year, and at the lowest April level in a decade.

• The April overall regional median sales price of $255,500 is up 5.1% or $12,500 from last year, and up 4.3% or $10,500 from last month.  This is the 14^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 
• Compared to last April, townhome prices were up 10.9% to $205,000, single-family detached prices were up 7.7% to $323,000, and condo prices were up 4.6% to $214,500.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $241,300 and the 10-year average of $238,250.
• April prices are 18.8% above the 2011 low of $215,000 and 1.7% below the peak of $260,000 seen in 2008.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with an April median sales price of $400,000, a 1.3% increase compared to last year. 
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, with an April median sales price of $140,000, a 3.7% increase.
• The highest level of year-over-year price appreciation was in Baltimore County, where prices rose 8.8% to $234,000.  Only Carroll County saw a decrease in prices compared to last year, where they dropped 5.9% to $269,450.

• The 3,264 closed sales in April were at the highest level in a decade, up 2.0% compared to last year, but down 0.7% compared to last month.   
• Compared to last year, townhome sales were up 5.6% to 1,221 and condos were up 2.6% to 320, but single-family detached sales were down 0.6% to 1,723.
• April sales were above the 5-year average of 2,767 and the 10-year average of 2,406.
• Sales were 87.7% above the 2009 low of 1,739 and up 2% from last year’s record high of 3,201.
• Sales activity across the region was mixed.  Harford County saw the highest percentage increase in number of sales (+21.5% or 59 sales) while Carroll County saw a 19.6% decrease, or 44 sales.

• There were 4,464 new pending sales in April, down 8.0% compared to last year, and down 4.7% compared to last month.    
• All property types saw a decrease in the number of pending sales compared to last year, with single-family detached down 10.6% to 2,439, condos down 6.9% to 429, and townhomes down 4.1% to 1,596.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 4,181 and the 10-year average of 3,476.
• The number of new pending contracts in April was 90.9% more than the 10-year market low of 2,338 seen in 2009.  New pending sales are 8.0% below last year’s record high of 4,853.
• New pending sales are down across all jurisdictions in the Baltimore Metro area, with the largest declines in Carroll (-14.8% or 48) and Anne Arundel County (-14.8% or 169).  The smallest level of decline was in Baltimore City, where pending sales were down only 0.3% or 3 sales.

• There were 5,787 new listings added in April in the Baltimore Metro area, a 7.9% decrease compared to last year, as well as a 2.8% decrease compared to last month. 
• All property types saw a decrease in the number of new listings compared to last year, with single-family detached down 10.9% to 3,232, townhomes down 4.3% to 1,989, and condos down 1.6% to 564.
• New listings are just above the 5-year average of 5,764 and the 10-year average of 5,333.
• The number of new listings in April was up 38.9% compared to the 2012 market low of 4,166, and was 7.9% below last year’s high of 6,283.
• Across the region, the largest percentage decrease in new listings was in Carroll County, where they declined 13.5% to 366.  The smallest decrease was in Baltimore County, where they declined 4.4% to 1,560.

• Active inventories of 10,186 dropped by 14.6% compared to last year, although they were up 7.8% compared to last month. Overall inventory levels have declined for 20 consecutive months and are at the lowest April level in a decade. 
• All types of property saw year-over-year declines in inventory levels, with condos down 18.1% to 959, single-family detached down 15.0% to 5,856, and townhomes down 12.8% to 3,369.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 11,435 and the 10-yr average of 14,036.
• April inventories are 47.4% below the decade high of 19,373 seen in April of 2008, and are 2.4% below the previous April 2013 low of 10,440.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 24.8% in Carroll County to 617 active listings, and the smallest decline of 11.0% in Anne Arundel County to 2,384 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for April was 96.2%, up significantly from last year’s 94.6%, and also up from last month’s 95.1%.  This was easily the highest April level in a decade.
• Single-family detached homes have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 96.6%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.9% and townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.8%.
• The April SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 94.5% and the 10-year average of 92.4%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest April average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, where it was 87.0%, and the previous high was last April where it was 94.6%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 98.2% of their original listing price in April, which continues to be the highest in the region, and well above last year’s 96.7%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 93.6%, up from last year’s 92.0%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in April in the Baltimore Metro region was 26 days, down 15 days from last year and down 16 days from last month.
• In April, condos had a median DOM of 24, while townhomes and single-family detached both had median DOM of 26.
• April’s median DOM of 26 days is well below both the 5-year average of 39 days and the 10-year average of 58 days.
• April’s median DOM of 26 was 67 days less than the peak DOM of 93 days in April 2011 and was the lowest April level in a decade.  The previous lowest median DOM was in 2013 at 36.
• All jurisdictions in the region saw declines in the April median DOM, with Carroll County seeing the largest decline of 56.4% or 31 days. 
• Homes sell fastest in Howard County, with a median DOM of 11, down from 23 days last year.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 41 days, down from 46 days last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS, a division of Bright MLS.

About MRIS

MRIS, a division of Bright MLS, is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.