Baltimore area home sales significantly outpace 2015 levels in November

Median sales price rises 4.3% to $240,000, highest November price since 2007; Sales levels reach highest mark since 2005; Inventories decline for 15^th straight month

Rockville, MD – (December 12, 2016) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November MRIS housing data.

Click here to view PDF version of this report

OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $240,000 was up 4.3% or $10,000 from last year and at the highest November level since 2007. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was up 26.8% from last year to $814 million.
• This was the highest level of November sales in a decade.  November closed sales of 2,863 were up 20.6% compared to last year.
• The 3,316 new pending contracts recorded in November were up 10.6% compared to last year.  This was, by far, the best November level of new contracts in the last decade.
• The number of new listings dropped 4.0% to 3,515 compared to last year.
• The number of active listings declined by 16.4% to 10,913, the 15^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in November was 94.4%, the highest November level in a decade.
• The median days-on-market was 40 days, down from 48 days last year, second best in a decade.

• The overall regional median sales price for November 2016 of $240,000 is up $10,000 or 4.3% from last year, but down 5.1% or $13,000 from last month.  This is the 12^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 
• Compared to last year, townhome prices were up 10.4% to $184,900, condo prices were up 5.2% to $199,950, and single-family detached prices were up 0.3% to $299,900.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $233,890 and the 10-year average of $235,655.
• November prices are 8.0% above the 2011 bottom of $222,250, and 7.2% below the peak of $258,500 seen in 2007.
• Baltimore City saw the highest median price percentage increase in the region with November prices up 20.6%, but it remains the most affordable locale with a median sales price of $131,500.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a November median sales price of $366,000, which is a 6.8% decrease compared to last year. 
• The year-to-date regional median price of $250,000 is up 4.2% compared to last year.  For the year, all jurisdictions except Howard County (-0.3%) show price increases, with the largest in Baltimore City (+18.2%).

• November sales of 2,863 were up 20.6% compared to last year, but down 6.4% compared to last month. This is the highest level of November sales since 2005.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached sales were up 22.0% to 1,516, condo sales were up 21.5% to 322, while townhome sales were up 18.5% to 1,025. 
• Sales were above the 5-year average of 2,289 and the 10-year November average of 2,044.
• Sales were 113.8% higher than the 2011 low of 1,339.
• All jurisdictions saw strong year-over-year growth in the number of closed sales, with gains ranging from 25.9% in Anne Arundel County to 15.1% in Harford County.
• Year-to-date sales through November of 36,222 are up 10.6% compared to last year.

• November 2016 pending sales of 3,316 increased 10.6% compared to last year, but were down 3.2% compared to last month.    
• All property types saw increases in the number of contracts compared to last year.  Condo contracts increased 13.4% to 338, single-family detached increased 12.7% to 1,775, and townhomes rose 7.0% to 1,203.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 2,729 and the 10-year average of 2,208.
• The number of new pending contracts in November was 164.0% more than the 10-year market low of 1,256 seen in 2008.
• Across the Baltimore Metro, all jurisdictions saw year-over-year increases in new pending contracts, ranging from a high of 22.4% in Carroll County to 7.3% in Baltimore County.

• The 3,515 new listings added in November in the Baltimore Metro area represented a 4.0% decrease over last year.  Compared to last month, new listings saw a normal seasonal decline of 18.8%. 
• All property types saw decreases in the number of new listings, with condos dropping 13.0% to 322.  The number of new single-family detached listings declined by 4.0% to 1,837 and the number of townhome new listings declined 1.7% to 1,356.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 3,182 and the 10-year averages of 3,148.
• The number of new listings in November was up 40.6% compared to the market low of 2,500 in 2011, and was 8.2% below the 2007 high of 3,829.
• Baltimore City saw the largest Y-o-Y percentage decline in the number of new listings (-9.0%).
• For the year-to-date across the region, new listings are up 0.9% to 53,715.

• Active inventories dropped by 16.4% to 10,913 compared to last year and were down 8.7% compared to last month. Overall inventory levels have declined for 15 consecutive months.
• Inventory levels for all property types were down for the eleventh straight month, with single-family detached down 17.9% to 6,098, townhomes down 14.6% to 3,816, and condos down 13.0% to 999.
• Inventories are below the 5-yr average of 11,864 and well below the 10-yr average of 14,470.
• November inventories are 42.5% below the decade high of 18,988 seen in November of 2007, and are just a slight 1.3% above the November 2012 trough of 10,777.
• All jurisdictions in the region continue to show declines in active inventories, with the largest percentage decline of 24.4% in Carroll County to 675 active listings, and the smallest decline in Baltimore City of 11.9% to 3,097 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 94.4%, up from last year’s 92.8% but down just slightly from last month’s 94.8%.  This was the highest November level in a decade.
• The November average SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 93.3% and the 10-year average of 91.8%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest November average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2010, where it was 88.5%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 96.2% of their original listing price in November, the highest in the region, and above last year’s 95.4%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 92.5%, up from last year’s 90.5%. 
• All jurisdictions showed increases in SP to OLP compared to last year, with the largest gain in Carroll County, where the ratio increased from 90.9% last November to 94.0% this November.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in November in the Baltimore Metro region was 40 days, down eight days from last year and the same as last month.
• This month townhomes had a median DOM of 35, while single-family detached homes had a median DOM of 44 and condos had a median DOM of 46.
• November’s median DOM of 40 days is below both the 5-year average of 46 days and the 10-year average of 61 days.
• This November’s median DOM was 47 days less than the peak DOM of 87 days in November 2008 and two days more than the low of 38 seen in November 2013.
• Homes in Howard County sell fastest, with a median DOM of 35, down from 40 days last year.
• Carroll County had the highest median DOM of 52 days, down from 62 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, all jurisdictions are seeing decreases in the median DOM.  For the overall region, the YTD median DOM is 36 days compared to 42 days last year.

###

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com