Baltimore area home sales dip 11 percent versus September 2017

Pending sales also decline year-over-year; Prices at highest September level on record; Inventories decline slightly

Rockville, MD – (October 10, 2018) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on September 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $270,000 was a 6.7% or $17,000 increase from last year.  It was, by far, the highest September median sales price of the last 10 years. 
• Sales volume of more than $872 million was down 4.9% from last year.
• The 2,785 closed sales were down 10.9% compared to last year.
• New pending sales of 3,252 were down 6.1% compared to last year.
• There were 4,678 new listings in September, down 2.1% from last year.
• The 10,656 active listings at the end of September, represented a 3.3% decline compared to last year, the 27^th consecutive month of year-over-year declines in inventory levels.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in September was 96.4%, above both last year’s 95.5% and last month’s 96.2%, and at the highest September level of the decade.
• Median days-on-market of 25 days was down four days compared to last year and was easily the lowest September level of the last 10 years.

• The September overall regional median sales price of $270,000 is up 6.7% or $17,000 from last year but down a seasonal 3.6% or $10,000 from last month.  This was, by far, the highest September price of the decade.
• Single-family detached home prices rose 10.4% to $349,999.  Townhome prices were up 5.7% to $205,000, while condo prices were down 0.7% to $212,500, the third consecutive month that condo prices have declined year-over-year.
• Prices remain well above the 5-year average of $251,274 and the 10-year average of $243,297.
• Prices are 19.2% above the September 2011 low of $226,600 and are 6.7% above the previous decade high seen in September 2016 of $253,670.
• Howard County remains the most expensive area in the region, with a September median sales price of $424,950, a 4.9% increase over last year.
• Baltimore City still has the lowest prices in the region, with a September median sales price of $136,500, up 7.5% from last year.
• Prices were up across the region.  Anne Arundel County saw the highest percentage increase in year-over-year prices, up 10.9% to $343,750.  Baltimore County saw the smallest increase, up 0.7% to $232,706.
• For the year to date, regional median sales prices are up 3.9% to $269,900.

• The 2,785 closed sales in September were down 10.9% compared to last year and down 28.1% from last month.  This was the largest decline in year-over-year closed sales since June of 2011.
• Compared to last year, townhome sales were down 7.9% to 1,043, single-family detached sales were down 11.6% to 1,427 and condo sales were down 16.9% to 315. 
• September sales dipped below the 5-year average of 2,919 but remain above the 10-year average of 2,505.
• September sales were about 50% more than the trough of 1,848 seen in September 2010.
• All areas in the region saw decreases in closed sales, with the smallest percentage decline in Howard County (-1.4% to 354) and the largest in Baltimore City (-15.2% to 610).
• Year-to-date closed sales are down 1.9% to 30,478 across the region.

• There were 3,252 new pending sales in September, down 6.1% compared to last year and down 13.8% compared to last month. 
• Pending sales of both single-family detached homes and townhomes declined 5.3%, to 1,718 and 1,218, respectively, while condo pending sales declined 12.7% to 316.
• Pending contracts are below the 5-year average of 3,315 but remain above the 10-year average of 2,784.
• The number of new pending contracts in September was 81.8% more than the 10-year market low of 1,789 seen in September 2010.  They were 8.5% below the highest September level of the past decade which was 3,556, seen in 2016.
• All jurisdictions saw declines in pending contracts, with the smallest percentage decrease in Baltimore County (-1.9% to 924) and the largest in Anne Arundel (-9.9% to 739).

• New listings in September declined 2.1% compared to last year to 4,678 and were down 11.5% from last month.  
• New townhome listings increased 0.4% to 1,770, but new single-family detached listings decreased 2.4% to 2,484, and new condo listings decreased 10.8% to 420.
• New listings dipped below the 5-year average of 4,775 but exceed the 10-year average of 4,270.
• The number of new September listings was up 44.7% compared to the 2012 market low of 3,233.    
• New listings increased in Howard County (+5.7% to 501) and in Baltimore County (+0.6% to 1,275).  New listings decreased everywhere else, with the smallest decline in Anne Arundel County (-0.2% to 1,040) and the largest in Harford County (-14.4% to 410).
• For the year to date, new listings across the region are up 0.7% to 46,270.

• Active inventories at the end of September were 10,656, down 3.3% compared to last year but up 2.0% from last month.   
• Compared to last year, townhome inventories were down 0.9% to 3,774, single-family detached inventories were down 2.9% to 6,019, and condo inventories were down a steep 15.6% to 858.
• Inventories remain well below both the 5-yr average of 12,588 and the 10-yr average of 13,876.
• September inventories are 44.0% below the peak level of 19,028 seen in 2010.  Last year’s 11,025 had been the lowest September inventory level of the decade until this month.
• Baltimore City saw a slight increase in inventory levels compared to last year (+0.3% to 3,160).  All other jurisdictions showed declines in inventory levels during September, with the smallest percentage decline in Anne Arundel County (-0.5% to 2,501) and the largest percentage decline in Harford (-11.8% to 923).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for September was 96.4%, up from last year’s 95.5% and from last month’s 96.2%.  It was easily the highest September level of the decade.
• Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.8%, while single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.5% and townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.1%.
• This September’s SP to OLP ratio remains well above both the 5-year average of 94.8% and the 10-year average of 93.1%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest September average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 88.5%, and the previous high was last September’s 95.5%.
• The highest SP to OLP ratio was in Harford County, where it was 98.1%, up sharply from last year’s 96.3%.  Harford County’s 1.9% increase was the largest percentage gain.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio was in Baltimore City, where it was 93.9%, up from last year’s 92.5%, the second largest percentage increase in the region after Harford County.
• For the year to date, the SP to OLP ratio of 97.2% is up from last year’s 96.5%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in September in the Baltimore Metro region was 25 days, down four days from last year and at the lowest September level of the decade.  Median DOM increased by three days from last month.
• Condos have a median DOM of 22, while townhomes have a median DOM of 24 and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 27.
• September’s median DOM is significantly less than the 5-year average of 36 days and the 10-year average of 47 days.
• The median DOM of 22 days is about one-third of the peak DOM of 74 days in September 2011.  Prior to this year, the lowest September median DOM had been last year’s 29 days.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 37 days, up from last year’s 32 days.
• Harford County had the lowest median DOM in the region of 19 days, down from 31 days last year.
• For the year-to-date across the region, median DOM is 23 days, down significantly from 28 days for the same time period last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.