Baltimore area home sales and prices hit new October record

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $280,000 smashes October record; Sales jump 19.2 percent; Inventory is very tight

Rockville, MD – (November 12, 2019) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on October 2019 Bright MLS housing data.

Click here to view PDF version of this article

OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $280,000 (+7.7% compared to last year) is at the highest October level of the decade and marks four years of solid price growth in the Metro.
• Sales volume of slightly more than $990 million was up 17.9% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,174 were up 12.7% compared to last year, the second month in a row of double-digit gains after mostly declines over the past year.
• New pending sales of 3,777 were also up this month, 11.2% more than last October.
• New listings were virtually flat at 4,765, comparable with the sluggish numbers of the past few months.
• There were 9,894 active listings at the end of October, down 7.3% from last year.  This is the fourth month in a row of declining inventories, after nine straight months of gains.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale was 97.2%, up from last October’s 95.7%, and median days-on-market was 30, up just one day from last year.

• With a regional median sales price of $280,000, this was easily the highest October price of the decade.  Prices were up 7.7% or $20,100 from last year but were down a seasonal 2.7% or $7,750 from last month.
• Townhomes saw the largest gains in year-over-year prices, up 11.7% to $217,800, while single-family detached prices were up 7.8% to $344,900 and condo prices rose 7.5% to 215,000.
• Prices are well above the 5-year average of $257,580 and the 10-year average of $245,255.
• Prices are 27.9% above the October 2011 low of $219,000.
• Howard County remains the most expensive area in the region, with an October median sales price of $399,900, up 6.6% from last year.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area, with an October median sales price of $154,950, up 14.8% from last year.
• Prices went up in all areas of the metro, with the largest percentage gain in Harford County (+17.7% to $282,500), followed by Baltimore City (+14.8% to $154,950), Howard County (+6.6% to $399,900), Anne Arundel County (+6.2% to $345,000), Baltimore County (+2.9% to $249,000) and Carroll County (+1.4% to $320,000).
• For the year-to-date, regional prices are up 6.3% to $285,000.

• Closed sales saw the second consecutive month in a row of double-digit gains (after nearly a year of declines), increasing by 12.7% to 3,174.   Sales were nearly flat compared to last month.
• Townhomes saw the largest percentage gain in year-over-year closed sales, up 20.4% to 1,199, while single-family detached sales rose 11.5% to 1,684.  However, condo sales fell 5.2% to 291.
• October sales are above both the 5-year average of 3,023 and the 10-year average of 2,514.
• October sales were nearly double the trough of 1,611 seen in October 2011.
• Sales activity across the region was mostly up, with only Carroll County (-15.6% to 157) showing a decline.  Howard County saw the largest percentage gain (+27.4% to 349), while Baltimore County saw the smallest (+2.3% to 831).
• For the year-to-date, closed sales across the region are up 2.4% to 34,359.

• New pending sales were up 11.2% compared to last year to 3,777 (the second month in a row of double-digit gains in new pending sales) and were at the highest October level of the decade.  They were up 2.3% from last month.
• Pending sales of townhomes were up 15.1% to 1,460 and single-family detached pending sales were up 11.1% to 1,971.  Condo pending sales were down 0.9% to 346.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,574 and the 10-year average of 3,031.
• The number of new pending contracts in October was a bit more than double the 10-year market low of 1,839 seen in October 2010.
• Across the region, new pending sales were up across the board, with the largest percentage gain in Anne Arundel County (+19.4% to 882) and the smallest in Howard County (+1.4% to 370).

• New listings were nearly flat at 4,765, a bit of a disappointment after seeing a small gain last month after several months of declines.  New listings were also down 2.0% over last month.
• New condo listings were up 11.7% to 460, but new single-family detached listings were down 0.6% to 2,470 and new townhome listings were down 1.4% to 1,835.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 4,669 and the 10-year average of 4,214.
• The number of new October listings exceeded the 2012 market low of 3,202 by 48.8%.
• New listing activity across the region was mixed, with Baltimore County (-5.6% to 1,240) and Howard County (-5.8% to 459) seeing declines in new listings.  Everywhere else, new listings increased with the largest percentage increase in Harford County (+14.6% to 440) and the smallest in Baltimore City (+0.6% to 1,293).
• For the year-to-date, new listings are up just 1.0% to 51,585.

• Active inventories of 9,894 declined by 7.3% compared to last year and by 2.6% compared to last month. This is, by far, the lowest October level of the decade and is the fourth month in a row, after nine months of increases, that year-over-year inventories have declined.
• Compared to last year, condo inventories were up 1.2% to 851, but inventories of townhomes were down 6.7% to 3,554 and single-family detached inventories were down 8.4% to 5,489.
• Inventories remain well below both the 5-yr average of 11,419 and the 10-yr average of 12,824.
• October inventories are 45.5% below the peak level of 18,147 seen in 2010.  October 2017’s 10,612 had been the lowest October inventory level until this month.
• Inventory levels are up in Carroll County (+6.7% to 622) but they declined everywhere else, with the smallest percentage decline in Baltimore City (-0.7% to 3,167) and the largest in Anne Arundel County (-15.6% to 2,099).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for October was 97.2%, up from both last year’s 95.7% and from last month’s 96.4% and are at the highest October level of the decade.
• Townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 98.8%, while condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.4% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.3%.
• This October’s SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 95.2% and the 10-year average of 93.4%.
• Over the last ten years, the lowest October average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 89.1%. 
• Baltimore City had the highest SP to OLP ratio at 98.3%, up impressively from last year’s 92.6%.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Carroll County, where it is 96.3%, down from last year’s 97.0%.  Carroll County is also the only area that saw a decline in SP to OLP compared to last year.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 97.3%, up from 97.1% for the same period last year. 

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in October was 30 days, up just one day from last year and up three days from last month.
• Condos have a median DOM of 24, while townhomes have a median DOM of 27 and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 33.
• October’s median DOM was seven days below the 5-year average of 37 days and 17 days below the 10-year average of 47 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 30 is the second-lowest October level in a decade (the lowest was 29 days last October).  The highest October median DOM of the last 10 years was 75 days in 2011.
• The highest median DOM in the region in October was in Baltimore City where it was 42 days, up from 36 days last year. 
• Carroll County has the lowest median DOM of 20 days, down from 23 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 25 days, the same as last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 95,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.