Baltimore area home sales up 17% from last year, reaching highest March level in a decade

Metro housing market visibly tightens, with median sales price up 3.2% to $245,000; closed sales up 16.8%, pending sales up 2.9%, and active listings down 15.8%

Rockville, MD – (April 11, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on March 2017 MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $245,000 was up 3.2% from last year, up 6.5% compared to last month, and at the highest March level since 2008. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was up 21.7% from last year to $923.8 million.
• March closed sales of 3,288 were up 16.8% compared to last year and set a high for the decade.
• The 4,685 new pending contracts recorded in March also set a new high, up 2.9% compared to last year’s previous March record of 4,553.
• The 5,953 new listings in March were down 1.3% compared to last March’s decade high.
• The number of active listings declined by 15.8% to 9,453, the 19^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest March levels in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in March was 95.1%, the highest March level in a decade, exceeding the previous high set in March 2014 and 2013 of 93.2%.
• The median days-on-market was 42 days, down from 63 days last year, and at the lowest level in a decade.

• The March overall regional median sales price of $245,000 is up 3.2% or $7,650 from last year, and up 6.5% or $15,000 from last month.  This is the 13^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 
• Compared to last March, condo prices were up 5.5% to $210,000, single-family detached prices were up 5.5% to $306,492, and townhome prices were up 1.6% to $189,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $233,685 and the 10-year average of $230,143.
• March prices are 22.5% above the 2011 low of $200,000, and 5% below the peak of $258,000 seen in 2008.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a March median sales price of $390,000, which is a 4.6% increase compared to last year. 
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, but it still saw the highest median price percentage increase, with March prices up 20.3% to $129,250.
• For the first quarter of 2017, all jurisdictions in the region show year-over-year increases in prices, with the largest in Baltimore City (+21.1%) and the smallest in Carroll County (+2.2%).

• The 3,288 closed sales in March were at the highest level in a decade, up 16.8% compared to last year and up 48.7% compared to last month.   
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 22.6% to 369, single-family detached sales were up 18.0% to 1,724, and townhome sales were up 13.4% to 1,195.
• March sales were above the 5-year average of 2,528 and the 10-year average of 2,198.
• Sales were more than double the 2009 low of 1,626.
• All jurisdictions showed strong increases in year-over-year sales growth, with the largest in Howard County (+29.2%) and the smallest in Carroll County (+4.9%).
• For the first quarter of 2017, all jurisdictions show increases in closed sales, except Carroll County (-4.3% or -20 sales), with the largest increase in Howard County (+15.3% or 113).

• There were 4,685 new pending sales in March 2017, up 2.9% compared to last year, and up 32.4% compared to last month.    
• All property types saw an increase in the number of pending sales compared to last year, with condos up 6.4% to 481, townhomes up 4.5% to 1,695, and single-family detached up 1.2% to 2,509.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,919 and the 10-year average of 3,239.
• The number of new pending contracts in March was 140.5% more than the 10-year market low of 1,948 seen in 2009.
• New pending sales are up across all jurisdictions in the Baltimore Metro area, except Carroll County (-15.2%) and Baltimore County (-4.3%).  The largest gains in new pending sales are in Harford County (+11.7%) and Baltimore City (+11.6%).

• There were 5,953 new listings added in March in the Baltimore Metro area, a 1.3% decrease compared to last year, but a 47.2% increase compared to last month. 
• All property types saw a decrease in the number of new listings compared to last year, with condos down 4.8% to 557, single-family detached down 1.3% to 3,330 and townhomes down 0.3% to 2,066.
• New listings are well above both the 5-year average of 5,099 and the 10-year average of 4,977.
• The number of new listings in March was up 44.1% compared to the market low of 4,132 in 2013, and was 1.3% below last year’s high of 6,030.
• Across the region, the largest percentage increase in new listings was in Harford County, where they rose 5.7% to 572.  The largest decrease was in Carroll County, where they declined 11.4% to 357.

• Active inventories dropped by 15.8% to 9,453 compared to last year, although they were up 5.9% compared to last month. Overall inventory levels have declined for 19 consecutive months and are at the lowest March level in a decade. 
• All types of property saw y-o-y declines in inventory levels, with condos down 22.5% to 876, single-family detached down 15.4% to 5,385 and townhomes down 14.5% to 3,192.
• Inventories are below both the 5-yr average of 10,496 and the 10-yr average of 13,280.
• March inventories are 48.7% below the decade high of 18,421 seen in March of 2008, and are 1.8% below the previous March low of 9,629 seen in 2013.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 23.9% in Carroll County to 578 active listings, and the smallest decline of 13.6% in Anne Arundel County to 2,168 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for March was 95.1%, up significantly from last year’s 93.1%, and also up from last month’s 94.3%.  This was easily the highest March level in a decade.
• Single-family detached homes have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 95.6%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.4% and townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 94.4%.
• The March SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 93.5% and the 10-year average of 91.3%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest March average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, where it was 86.0%, and the previous high was in March 2013 & 2014 where it was 93.2%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 97.5% of their original listing price in March, which continues to be the highest in the region, and above last year’s 95.7%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 92.2%, up from last year’s 89.7%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in March in the Baltimore Metro region was 42 days, down 21 days from last year and down 14 days from last month.
• In March, townhomes had a median DOM of 38, condos had a median DOM of 39, and single-family detached homes had a median DOM of 45.
• March’s median DOM of 42 days is below both the 5-year average of 57 days and the 10-year average of 77 days.
• March’s median DOM was 69 days less than the peak DOM of 111 days in March 2009 and was the lowest March level in a decade.  The previous lowest median DOM was in 2013 at 52.
• All jurisdictions in the region saw declines in the March median DOM, with Carroll County seeing the largest decline of 53.7% or 44 days. 
• Homes sell fastest in Howard County, with a median DOM of 33, down from 39 days last year.
• Harford County had the highest median DOM of 46 days, down from 64 days last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com

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