Baltimore area home prices, sales and pending contracts at October decade highs

Active inventories decline by 11.3%, fall for the 26^th consecutive month

Rockville, MD – (November 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on October 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $260,000 was up 2.8% or $7,000 from both last year and last month.  It was the highest October price level of the last decade.
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was nearly $912 million, up 0.5% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,097 were up 1.2% compared to last year, the highest October level in a decade.
• New contract activity of 3,677 was up 7.3% from last year and up 6.2% from last month, also at the highest October level of the decade.
• There were 4,677 new listings, up 8.1% from last year, but down 2.1% from last month.
• Active listings declined by 11.3% to 10,612, the 26^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest October levels in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in October was 95.4%, up from last year’s 94.8% but down from last month’s 95.5%; the highest October level of the decade.
• The median days-on-market was 32 days, down eight days from last year.

• The October overall regional median sales price of $260,000 is up 2.8% or $7,000 from last year, and also up 2.8% from last month.  September’s decline in year-over-year prices appears to have been an anomaly, and outside of that, year-over-year prices have increased since February 2016.
• Compared to last year, townhome prices were up 5.6% to $190,000 and single-family detached prices were up 3.1% to $324,700.  Condo prices were up 2.1% to $219,500.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $245,050 and the 10-year average of $239,565.
• October prices are 18.7% above the 2011 low of $219,000.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with an October median sales price of $404,990, a 6.6% increase compared to last year.  Howard County also saw the highest level of price appreciation in the region.
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, with an October median sales price of $130,000, a 4.8% increase compared to last year.
• Harford County saw the only percentage decline in prices, down 7.6% to $245,000.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median sales price has increased 4.0% to $259,994.

• There were 3,097 closed sales in October, up 1.2% compared to last year but down 1.0% compared to last month.  This was the highest level of October sales in a decade.
• Compared to last year, townhome sales were up 13.7% to 1,137 and condo sales were up 0.9% to 346.  Single-family detached sales were down 6.0% to 1,614. 
• October sales were well above the 5-year average of 2,790 and the 10-year average of 2,329.
• October sales were 92.2% above the 2011 low of 1,611.
• Baltimore City saw the largest percentage increase in closed sales (+13.3% to 716), while Howard County saw the highest percentage decline in number of sales (-24.9% to 283).
• For the year-to-date, closed sales across the region are up 3.3% to 34,318.

• There were 3,677 new pending sales in October, up 7.3% compared to last year and up 6.2% compared to last month.  This is the highest level of new October contracts in a decade.
• The number of new pending townhome sales increased 10.1% to 1,375, single-family detached homes increased 5.8% to 1,906, and new pending condo sales increased 5.6% to 396.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,296 and the 10-year average of 2,696.
• The number of new pending contracts in October was 154.3% more than the 10-year market low of 1,446 seen in October 2008 and up 2.3% from the previous October 2015 high of 3,595.
• New pending sales were mostly higher across the region.  Baltimore County saw the largest increase in new pending sales, up 15.3% to 1,064, while Carroll County saw the smallest increase of 0.5% to 189.  Howard County saw the only decrease, down 4.5% to 382.

• There were 4,677 new listings added in October, up 8.1% from last year, but down 2.1% from last month.    
• New townhome listings rose 21.1% to 1,880 and new condo listings increased 5.7% to 443.  Single-family detached listings were flat at 2,354. 
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 4,476 and the 10-year average of 4,070.
• The number of new listings in October was up 46.1% compared to the 2012 market low of 3,202, and was 2.5% below the October 2015 high of 4,798.
• The largest percentage increase in new listings was in Baltimore City, where they rose 24.9% to 1,336, and the smallest increase was in Anne Arundel County, up 1.5% to 970.  The only decrease in the number of new listings was in Howard County, where they declined 0.4% to 467.
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the region are up a slight 0.9% to 50,649.

• Active inventories of 10,612 were down 11.3% compared to last year, and down 3.7% from last month.   Overall inventory levels have declined for 26 consecutive months and are at the lowest October level of the decade. 
• Townhome inventories were down 6.5% to 3,769, while condo inventories were down 10.3% to 980 and single-family detached inventories were down 14.3% to 5,862.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 12,530 and the 10-yr average of 14,392.
• October inventories are 45.8% below the decade high of 19,571 seen in October of 2008, and are 8.0% below the previous October 2012 low of 11,531.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the smallest percentage decline of 2.9% in Baltimore City to 3,168 active listings, and the largest percentage decline of 20.1% in Carroll County to 619 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for October was 95.4%, up from last year’s 94.8%, but down from last month’s 95.5%.  This was the highest October level in a decade.
• Condos have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 95.7%.  Single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.5%, and townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.2%.
• The October SP to OLP ratio is above both the 5-year average of 94.0% and the 10-year average of 92.3%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest October average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, when it was 89.1%, and the previous high was last October when it was 94.8%.
• Homes in Carroll County sold at 97.0% of their original listing price in October, the highest in the region and well above last year’s 94.8%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price remains in Baltimore City, where it was 93.1%, up from last year’s 93.0%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 96.4%, up from last year’s 94.9%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in October in the Baltimore Metro region was 32 days, down eight days from last year but up three days from last month. This is the lowest October DOM of the last decade.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 27, condos have a median DOM of 30, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 37.
• October’s median DOM of 32 days is well below both the 5-year average of 42 days and the 10-year average of 55 days.
• October’s median DOM of 32 was 53 days less than the peak DOM of 85 days in October 2008 and was seven days less than the previous low of 39 days in October 2013.
• Anne Arundel County had the highest median DOM of 38 days, down from 41 days last year.
• Carroll and Howard Counties have the lowest median DOM in the region of 28 days.
• For the year-to-date, the regional median DOM is 28 days, down from 36 days for the same period last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.