Baltimore area home prices reach highest April level in last ten years

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $275,000 is at highest May level of the last decade; Inventories at May lows and median days-on-market at record lows

Rockville, MD – (June 12, 2018) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on May 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price rose to $275,000, a slight 0.5% or $1,375 from last year, and up 2.7% or $7,100 from last month.  This was the highest May price of the decade.
• Sales volume of just over $1.2 billion was down 1.2% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,850 were down 2.9% compared to last year but up 15.0% from last month.
• New contract activity of 4,631 was down 3.1% from last year and down 1.7% from last month.
• The 6,295 new listings in May were up 5.9% from last year and up 5.5% from last month.
• The 9,822 active listings at the end of May, showed a 6.4% decline over last year.  Although this is the 33^rd consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels, this was the first month in nearly two years that declines were below 10%.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in May was 97.5%, the highest monthly level of the last ten years, up from both last year’s 96.8% and last month’s 96.6%.
• The median days-on-market was down four days compared to last year and down three days from last month. At just 15 days, it was the lowest monthly level of the last 10 years.

• The May overall regional median sales price of $275,000 is up a mere 0.5% or $1,375 from last year and up 2.7% from last month.  While this was the highest May price of the decade and marks the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, it’s lower than the gains seen over the last two years.
• All property types saw increases this month, with condos increasing 7.0% to $215,000, single-family detached up 3.4% to $350,000, and townhomes increasing 3.3% to $220,000. 
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $262,125 and the 10-year average of $249,908.
• Prices are 23.9% above the May 2011 low of $221,950.  Last year’s $273,625 had been the highest May price level of the last ten years.
• Howard County remains the most expensive area in the region, with a May median sales price of $420,000, a 2.9% decrease compared to last year.
• Baltimore City is still the most affordable area, with a May median sales price of $166,250, up 6.6% from last year, the highest percentage increase in the region.
• Prices in Harford County rose 4.6% to $270,000, in Baltimore County they rose 3.3% to $238,000, and in Anne Arundel County they rose 0.1% to $342,250.  Prices in Carroll County declined 0.3% to $312.500.
• For the year to date, regional median sales prices are up 4.0% to $259,900.

• There were 3,850 closed sales in May, down 2.9% compared to last year but up 15.0% from last month.  
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 5.0% to 402, townhome sales were up 2.4% to 1,440, while single-family detached sales were down 7.6% to 2,008. 
• May sales were well above the 5-year average of 3,505 and the 10-year average of 2,935.
• May sales were nearly double the 2009 low of 2,009.  Last year’s 3,964 closed sales remain the highest May level of the last decade.
• Only Anne Arundel (+2.3% to 926) and Harford County (+2.2% to 413) saw increases in closed sales.  Baltimore County (-2.7% to 993), Baltimore City (-3.1% to 856), Carroll County (-10.3% to 235) and Howard County (-12.9% to 427) saw decreases.
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region are down 1.6% to 15,176.

• There were 4,631 new pending sales in May, down 3.1% compared to last year and down 1.7% compared to last month. 
• Pending sales were down for all types of properties, with condos showing the largest decrease of 6.5% to 447, single-family detached homes pending sales declining 3.7% to 2,542, and townhomes decreasing 1.0% to 1,642.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 4,396 and the 10-year average of 3,564.
• The number of new pending contracts in May was more than two and one-half times the 10-year market low of 1,777 seen in May 2010.  The highest May level of the last ten years was last year’s 4,777.
• Only Harford County saw an increase in pending sales (+6.9% to 482).  All other jurisdictions saw declines, with the smallest in Baltimore County (-0.1% to 1,284) and the largest in Carroll County (-9.5% to 287).

• There were 6,295 new listings added in May, up 5.9% from last year and up 5.5% from last month.  This is the highest overall monthly level of new listings of the last 10 years.
• New single-family detached listings increased 8.7% to 3,579, while townhome listings rose 3.2% to 2,146 and new condo listings decreased 0.7% to 570.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 5,929 and the 10-year average of 5,158.
• The number of new May listings was up 57.5% compared to the 2012 market low of 3,997.  Prior to this year, the previous May high was in 2015 at 6,062.
• New listings across the region were up, with the largest percentage increase in Carroll County (+13.0% to 417) and the smallest in Howard County (+1.6% to 768).
• For the year to date, new listings across the region are down 0.2% to 25,330.

• Active inventories of 9,822 were down 6.4% compared to last year but were up 8.8% from last month.   Year-over-year inventory levels have declined for 33 consecutive months.
• Compared to last year, condo inventories were down 13.9% to 844, while single-family detached inventories were down 7.7% to 5,562 and townhome inventories were down 2.0% to 3,413.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 11,825 and the 10-yr average of 13,503.
• May inventories are 44.5% below the peak level of 17,706 seen in 2010.  Last year’s 10,490 had been the lowest May level of the decade until this month.
• This month only Baltimore City saw an increase in active listings, up 5.0% to 3,011.  All other jurisdictions showed declines in inventories during May, with the smallest percentage decline in Anne Arundel County (-4.4% to 2,330) and the largest percentage decline in Harford (-21.3% to 785).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for May was 97.5%, up from last year’s 96.8%.  The SP to OLP ratio this month was also up from last month’s 96.6% and was at the highest monthly level of a decade.
• Single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.7%, while townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.4% and condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.2%.
• The May SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 95.9% and the 10-year average of 93.6%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest May average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 88.5%, and the previous high was last May’s 96.8%.
• The highest SP to OLP ratio is in Howard County, where it is 98.7%, up from last year’s 98.2%.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Baltimore City, where it is 95.8%, up from last year’s 95.3%.
• Harford County saw the largest year-over-year increase in SP to OLP ratio, where it increased to 98.5% from 96.9%.
• For the year to date, the SP to OLP ratio of 97.5% is up from last year’s 96.7%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in May in the Baltimore Metro region was 15 days, down four days from last year and three days from last month. This is, by far, the lowest median DOM of the last ten years.
• Single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 14, while condos have a median DOM of 15, and townhomes have a median DOM of 18.
• May’s median DOM is nine days less than the 5-year average of 24 days and is almost one third of the 10-year average of 39 days.
• The median DOM of 15 days is 20% of the peak DOM of 75 days in May 2009.  Prior to this year, the lowest May median DOM was last year’s 19 days.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 25 days, down from 26 days last year.
• Howard County had the lowest median DOM in the region of 8 days, down from 9 days last year.
• All jurisdictions saw declines in median days-on-market.
• For the year-to-date across the region, median DOM is 26 days, down significantly (-21.2%) from 33 days last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.