Baltimore area home prices increase again in January

Median sales price rises 6.8% to $234,950, best January level since 2008; Sales levels rise 5.9%, pending sales rise 14.5%, both set new decade highs; Inventories down for 17^th month in a row

Rockville, MD – (February 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on January 2017 MRIS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $234,950 was up 6.8% or $14,950 from last year, and is at the highest January level since 2008, where it was $250,000. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was up 12.2% from last year to $602.6 million.
• January closed sales of 2,196 were up 5.9% compared to last year’s decade high of 2,073.
• The 3,197 new pending contracts recorded in January also set a January decade high, up 14.6% compared to last year and up 11% compared to the previous high of 2,880 set in January 2015. 
• The 3,618 new listings in January were up 9.4% compared to last year and set a new decade high, exceeding the 3,605 seen in January 2010. 
• The number of active listings declined by 17.2% to 9,095, the 17^th consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest January level in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in January was 94.3%, the highest January level in a decade, exceeding the previous high set in January 2014 of 92.9%.
• The median days-on-market was 46 days, down from 56 days last year, and at the lowest level in a decade.

• The overall regional median sales price for January 2017 of $234,950 is up $14,950 or 6.8% from last year, but down 4.1% or $10,050 from last month.  This is the 11^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 
• All property types showed increases in prices compared to last January, with condo prices up 11.1% to $200,000, single-family detached prices up 7.3% to $294,995, and townhome prices up 3.5% to $165,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $216,840 and the 10-year average of $219,857.
• January prices are 12.8% above the 2012 low of $208,370, and 6% below the peak of $250,000 seen in 2008.
• All jurisdictions in the region saw year-over-year price increases.
• Baltimore City saw the highest median price percentage increase in the region with January prices up 14.2% to $116,500, but it still remains the most affordable area in the region.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a January median sales price of $367,450, which is an 8.2% increase compared to last year.

• With 2,196 sales, this is the highest level of January sales in a decade, up 5.9% compared to last year.  Sales are down 31.3% compared to last month.   
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 12.2% to 239, townhome sales were up 9.3% to 831, and single-family detached sales were up 2.4% to 1,126. 
• January sales were above the 5-year average of 1,820 and the 10-year average of 1,551.
• Sales were 103.5% higher than the 2009 low of 1,079 and exceed last year’s prior record of 2,073 by 5.9%.
• Year-over-year sales levels were up in Howard County (+32.6%), Baltimore City (+20.5%) and Anne Arundel County (+7.0%), but down in Baltimore County (-3.1%), Carroll County (-8.7%) and Harford County (-14.9%).

• January 2017 pending sales of 3,197 were up 14.6% compared to last year, and were up 21.6% compared to last month.    
• All property types saw an increase in the number of pending sales compared to last year, with townhomes up 25.4% to 1,264, condos up 18.7% to 324, and single-family detached up 6.6% to 1,609.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 2,722 and the 10-year average of 2,244.
• The number of new pending contracts in January was 137.9% more than the 10-year market low of 1,344 seen in 2009, and exceeded the prior decade high of 2,880 seen in 2015 by 11%.
• The number of new pending sales are up across all jurisdictions in the Baltimore Metro area, with the largest percentage increase in Baltimore City (+22.7%) and the smallest in Harford County (+1.1%).

• The 3,618 new listings added in January in the Baltimore Metro area represent a 9.4% increase over last year and a 36.5% increase compared to last month. 
• All property types experienced an increase in the number of new listings, with single-family detached up 10.2% to 1,909, condos up 9.2% to 405 and townhomes up 8.4% to 1,304.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 3,320 and the 10-year average of 3,439.
• The number of new listings in January was up 27.7% compared to the market low of 2,833 in 2012, and was 22.9% below the 2008 high of 4,695.
• Only Howard County saw a decrease in the level of new January listings (-2.5%) while the largest increase was in Anne Arundel (+20.2%).

• Active inventories dropped by 17.2% to 9,095 compared to last year and were down 5.3% compared to last month. Overall inventory levels have declined for 17 consecutive months and are at the lowest January level in a decade. 
• Compared to last January, condo inventories were down 18.3% to 858, single-family detached inventories were down 18.1% to 5,065 and townhomes were down 15.4% to 3,172.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 10,191 and the 10-yr average of 12,871.
• January inventories are 48.4% below the decade high of 17,632 seen in January of 2008, and are 3.1% below the previous January low of 9,387 seen in 2013.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 24.4% in Carroll County to 568 active listings, and the smallest decline in Baltimore City of 12.1% to 2,682 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for January was 94.3%, up significantly from last year’s 91.8%, but down from last month’s 94.8%.  This was the highest January level in a decade.
• Townhomes have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 94.7%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 94.4% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 94.0%.
• The January SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 92.3% and the 10-year average of 90.6%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest January average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2009, where it was 87.4% and the previous high was in 2014 where it was 92.9%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 96.4% of their original listing price in January, which continues to be the highest in the region, and above last year’s 94.5%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 92.5%, up from last year’s 88.7%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in January in the Baltimore Metro region was 46 days, down ten days from last year but up 4 days from last month.
• In January, condos had a median DOM of 55, while single-family detached homes had a median DOM of 51 and townhomes had a median DOM of 38.
• January’s median DOM of 46 days is below both the 5-year average of 54 days and the 10-year average of 70 days.
• January’s median DOM was 56 days less than the peak DOM of 102 days in January 2009 and was the lowest January level in a decade.  The previous lowest median DOM was in 2014 at 50.
• All jurisdictions in the region saw declines in the January median DOM, with Howard County seeing the largest decline of 38.2%.  Homes also sell fastest in Howard County, with a median DOM of 42, down from 68 days last year.
• Carroll County had the highest median DOM of 54 days, down from 72 days last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com