April home prices continue to rise in the Baltimore Metro seller's market

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $267,900 is at highest April level of the last decade; Year-over-year closed sales at April high; Inventories at April lows and median days-on-market at record low

Rockville, MD – (May 10, 2018) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on April 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $267,900 was up 4.9% or $12,400 from last year and up 3.4% or $8,900 from last month.  This was easily the highest April price of the decade.
• Sales volume of slightly more than $1 billion was up 6.3% from last year.
• April closed sales of 3,349 were up 2.6% compared to last year and up 8.7% from last month and were at the highest April level of the last ten years.
• New contract activity of 4,711 was up 5.5% from last year.
• There were 5,969 new listings in April, up 3.1% from last year and up 7.0% from last month.
• Active listings declined by 11.4% to 9,029.   This is the 32^nd consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and was, by far, at the lowest April level in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in April was 96.6%, the highest April level of the last ten years, up from both last year’s 96.2% and last month’s 96.0%.
• The median days-on-market was 18 days, the lowest April level of the last 10 years.  It was down eight days compared to last year and was almost half of what it was last month.

• The April overall regional median sales price of $267,900 is up 4.9% or $12,400 from last year and up 3.4% from last month.  This was easily the highest April price of the decade and marks the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• Only single-family detached prices rose this month, up 6.8% to $345,000.  Townhome prices were down 1.2% to $202,500 and condo prices were down 3.0% to $208,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $247,280 and the 10-year average of $239,040.
• Prices are 24.6% above the April 2011 low of $215,000.  Last year’s $255,500 had been the highest April price level of the last ten years.
• Howard County remains the most expensive area in the region, with an April median sales price of $430,000, a 7.5% increase compared to last year.
• Baltimore City is still the most affordable area, with an April median sales price of $139,900, down slightly from $140,000 last year.
• Carroll County saw the largest percentage increase in price (+16.9% to $314,900), and Baltimore County saw the smallest percentage increase (+0.4% to $235,000).  As for the remaining two counties, Anne Arundel County saw an increase (+7.5% to $349,440), while Harford County saw a decline (-1.8% to $245,500).
• For the year to date, regional median sales prices are up 4.5% to $255,000.

• The 3,349 closed sales in April were up 2.6% compared to last year and up 8.7% from last month.  
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 6.6% to 341, townhome sales were up 3.3% to 1,261, and single-family detached sales were up 1.4% to 1,747. 
• April sales were well above the 5-year average of 2,977 and the 10-year average of 2,535.
• April sales were nearly double the 2009 low of 1,739.  Prior to this year, the highest April level had been last year’s 3,264.
• Most jurisdictions saw increases in closed sales, with Carroll County experiencing the largest percentage increase (+16.1% to 209), followed by Howard County (+12.7% to 381), Baltimore County (+4.5% to 875) and Anne Arundel County (+0.6% to 806). 
• Baltimore City (-1.0% to 767) and Harford County (-6.6% to 311) were the only jurisdictions to see decreases in closed sales.
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region are down 1.1% to 11,216.

• There were 4,711 new pending sales in April, up 5.5% compared to last year and up 11.6% compared to last month. 
• Pending sales were up for all types of properties, with condos showing the largest increase of 16.1% to 498 and townhomes increasing 9.4% to 1,746.  The number of new pending sales of single-family detached homes slightly recovered from the last five consecutive months of year-over-year declines, increasing 1.1% to 2,467. 
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 4,399 and the 10-year average of 3,712.
• The number of new pending contracts in April was more than double the 10-year market low of 2,338 seen in April 2009.  The highest April level of the last ten years was in 2016 at 4,853.
• Most jurisdictions saw increases in new pending sales, with Anne Arundel County showing the largest percentage increase (+12.5% to 1,096) and Howard County showing the smallest percentage increase (+0.8% to 517).  Carroll County (-1.1% to 274) booked the only decline.

• The 5,969 new listings added in April were up 3.1% from last year and up 7.0% from last month.  
• New single-family detached listings increased 4.3% to 3,370, while townhome listings rose 1.9% to 2,027 and new condo listings increased 1.4% to 572.
• New listings nearly match the 5-year average of 5,968 and are moderately above the 10-year average of 5,379.
• The number of new April listings was up 43.3% compared to the 2012 market low of 4,166 but was 5.0% below the decade high of 6,283 seen in April 2016.
• Across the region, new listings increased by the largest percentage in Anne Arundel County (+10.7% to 1,435).  The smallest percentage increase was in Harford County (+3.2% to 578).  Baltimore County had the largest decline in new listings (-3.5% to 1,506).
• For the year to date, new listings across the region are down 2.1% to 19,015.

• Active inventories of 9,029 were down 11.4% compared to last year but were up 6.1% from last month.   Year-over-year inventory levels have declined for 32 consecutive months, with double-digit declines for 22 consecutive months.
• Condo inventories were down 19.5% to 772, while single-family detached inventories were down 14.3% to 5,016 and townhome inventories were down 3.9% to 3,238.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 11,153 and the 10-yr average of 13,001.
• April inventories are 48.3% of the 17,454 seen in 2009.  Last year’s 10,186 had been the lowest April level of the decade until this month.
• Only Baltimore City saw an increase in active listings, up 1.5% to 2,832.  All other jurisdictions showed declines in inventories during April, with the smallest percentage decline in Anne Arundel County (-10.6% to 2,131) and the largest percentage decline in Harford (-27.6% to 703).

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for April was 96.6%, up from last year’s 96.2%.  The SP to OLP ratio this month was also up from last month’s 96.0% and was the highest April level in a decade.
• Single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.8%, while townhomes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.5% and condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 95.8%.
• The April SP to OLP ratio is well above both the 5-year average of 95.0% and the 10-year average of 92.8%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest April average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011 when it was 87.0%, and the previous high was last April’s 96.2%.
• The highest SP to OLP ratio is in Carroll County, where it is 98.2%, up significantly from last year’s 96.3% and the largest year-over-year gain in the region.
• The lowest SP to OLP ratio is in Baltimore City, where it is 93.8%, up from last year’s 93.6%.
• For the year to date, the SP to OLP ratio of 96.2% is down from last year’s 96.6%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in April in the Baltimore Metro region was 18 days, down eight days from last year and about half of what was last month. This is the lowest monthly median DOM of the last ten years.
• Condos have a median DOM of 20, while single-family detached and townhomes both have a median DOM of 18.
• April’s median DOM of 18 days is one half of the 5-year average of 36 days and is significantly below (-65.1%) the 10-year average of 52 days.
• April’s median DOM of 18 days is about 20% of the peak DOM of 93 days in April 2011.  Prior to this year, the lowest April median DOM was last year’s 26 days.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 28 days, down from 41 days last year.
• Carroll County had the lowest median DOM in the region of 9 days, down 15 days from last year.
• All jurisdictions saw significant declines in median days-on-market.
• For the year-to-date across the region, median DOM is 31 days, down significantly (-24.4%) from 41 days last year.

About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.