2015 DC Metro Home Sales Reached Highest Level Since 2006

Closed sales up 9 percent annually; Prices gain only 1 percent for second straight year, remain 24 percent higher than 2009’s bottom levels

Rockville, MD – (January 13, 2016) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on year-end 2015 MRIS housing data.

OVERVIEW

• 2015’s median sales price ended up at $410,000, marking only a 1.1 percent gain from 2014. Despite flat growth, prices are only 1.2 percent down from 2007’s peak levels.
• Sales in 2015 were very strong, with year-over-year gains seen in every single month. Ultimately, the 50,528 cumulative sales marked a 9.4 percent increase over 2014.
• Seller activity picked up consistently through the year and the 73,733 cumulative listings added over the course of 2015 were 8.5 percent more than the number added in 2014.
• After rising to a peak year-over-year increase of 34.6 percent in August 2014, inventory growth has steadily declined in 2015, ending the year at 8,644 listings, which is only 4.6 percent higher than at the end of 2014.  Inventory growth will likely be negative in 2016.
• Half the homes sold in 2015 were on the market 22 days or less, a two-day increase compared to 2014, but remaining well below both the 5 and 10-year averages.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale has remained relatively steady over the last several years, dropping only slightly in 2015 to 97.3 percent.

Click here to view PDF version of the year-end report

• The regional median price of $410,000 in 2015 was 1.1 percent higher than last year. While the gain was relatively low, it marked the sixth straight year of gains since the 2009 bottom.
• Regional pricing levels are now 23.7 percent above the $331,500 bottom of the market in 2009, and only 1.2 percent off the $415,000 peak in 2007.
• Despite being the only area where price levels dipped slightly, Falls Church remained the most expensive location with a 2015 median sales price of $690,000.
• Prince George’s County has seen the highest year-over-year appreciation of 6.3 percent, although it remains the most affordable area in the region with a 2015 median price of $235,000.

• There were 50,528 closed sales in 2015, up 9.4% compared to 2014, marking the largest annual gain since 2009.
• 2015’s closed sales total was up 34.4% compared to the market low of 37,602 seen in 2008, but was 10.8 percent below 2006’s peak level of 56,641.
• Fairfax County had the most closed sales in 2015 with 14,850, which was an increase of 9.6 percent from last year.
• Prince George’s County saw the largest percentage increase in sales, where the 9,369 sales in 2015 represented a 14.9 percent annual increase.

• There was an 8.5 percent annual increase in the number of new listings added in 2015.
• The 73,733 cumulative listings in were up 24 percent compared to the 59,476 low of 2012.
• New listings in 2015 were 11.8 percent above the 5-year average but less than a percent below the 10-year average.
• All jurisdictions except Falls Church City saw year-over-year increases in new listings.
• Fairfax City had the largest percentage increase in the number of new listings, with a 14.6 percent gain.

• Inventories increased to 8,644 by year-end, a 4.6 percent increase compared to last year.
• End of year inventories exceed the 10-year low of 6,303 in 2012, but are down a whopping 60.2% from the year-end peak of 21,712 in 2007.
• Inventories are slightly above the 5-year average of 8,123 but substantially below the 10-year average of 12,574.
• Fairfax County had the largest percentage increase in year-end inventory with 2,581 active listings, an increase of 10.8% compared to 2014.
• Regional supply growth was driven by gains in Fairfax County (+10.8%), Prince George’s County (+5.2%), Washington D.C (+5.0%) and Arlington County (+3.7%).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio for 2015 was 97.3 percent, 0.3 points lower than 2014’s level.
• Over the last decade, the region’s average sales price to original listing price ratio ranged from a low of 92.6 percent in 2008 to a high of 98.7 percent in 2013.
• Homes in Washington D.C. sold at 98.9 percent of their original listing price in 2015, the highest in the region.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Montgomery County, where the average ratio was 96.4 percent.

• Half the homes sold in 2015 were on the market 22 days or less, a two-day increase from the median DOM of 2014.
• The lowest DOM level recorded in the past decade was 15 days in 2013; the highest median DOM was 63 days in 2008 (41 days higher than 2015’s level).
• The only jurisdiction where DOM declined was in Washington D.C, where it fell by one day to 12, the lowest level in the region.
• Half the homes sold in Montgomery County were on the market at least four weeks, the median DOM there was six days higher than the regional level.

About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. 

About RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI) is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com